农业发展水平会影响“开放促增长”的成效吗?——来自WTO会员国的证据  

Would Agricultural Development Influence the Effect of“Opening-up Promoting Growth”:Evidence from the WTO Members

作　　者：刘乃郗 赵婧含 LIU Naixi;ZHAO Jinghan(School of International Economics,China Foreign Affairs University,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际经济学院,北京100037

出　　处：《燕山大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第6期59-70,共12页Journal of Yanshan University:Philosophy and Social Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“‘一带一路’农业对外投资的风险防范对策研究”(19AZD012)。

摘　　要：对外开放是促进经济增长的重要途径,然而在经验事实中,不同国家“开放促增长”的成效却显著有异。经典刘易斯二元理论由于不包含要素投入分配约束,无法解释这种差异。文章在引入要素投入分配约束的基础上,提出农业发展水平对一国“开放促增长”成效存在调节效应与门槛效应的理论假说。利用1995—2017年间102个WTO成员国面板数据展开实证分析,发现:一国农业发展水平对贸易开放促增长的成效具有显著的正向调节作用。在农业发展水平尚未跨过第一道门槛时,贸易开放对经济增长影响并不显著,而投资开放对经济增长则呈现出显著负面影响;在农业发展水平跨过第一道门槛后,贸易开放和投资开放均能显著促进经济增长;随着农业发展水平跨过第二道门槛,贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用不再显著。最后进行了结构分析与稳健性检验,结果与基准模型保持一致。Opening up to the outside world is an important way for a country to promote its economic growth,but in fact the effectiveness of“opening up for growth”varies significantly among countries.The classical Lewis dualism theory is unable to explain this variety because it does not contain the constraints of factor input allocation.Based on the introduction of the constraints on the allocation of factor inputs,this article puts forward a theoretical hypothesis that agricultural development level in one country has a regulatory and threshold effect on its“Opening-up Promoting Growth”effect.Based on the data from 102 WTO member countries from 1995 to 2017,this article found that the level of agricultural development in one country has a favorable regulatory impact on the effectiveness of“Opening-up Promoting Growth”.Specifically,when its level of agricultural development has not yet crossed the first threshold,the impact of trade opening on promoting economic growth is not significant,and the investment opening has a significant negative impact on promoting economic growth;when its level of agricultural development has crossed the first threshold,the results of trade opening and investment opening to promote economic growth are significantly positive;when its level of agricultural development has crossed the second threshold,the contribution of trade opening to growth is no longer significant.The results of the subsequent structural analysis and robustness estimates are consistent with the benchmark model,which provides new evidence for developing countries to adopt a gradual opening-up policy.

关 键 词：农业发展水平 开放促增长 产业结构 

分 类 号：F43[经济管理—产业经济]