1960-2019年河南省霜冻日期时空变化及影响因素研究  

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Frost Periods in Henan Province during 1960-2019

作　　者：张志高[1] 刘晴 刘慧颖 郭超凡 蔡茂堂[2] 尹纪媛 ZHANG Zhigao;LIU Qing;LIU Huiying;GUO Chaofan;CAI Maotang;YIN Jiyuan(School of Resources Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang Henan 455000,China;Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455000 [2]中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期170-178,共9页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41602366);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师项目(2020GGJS188);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(21A170002,23A170008)。

摘　　要：基于1960-2019年河南省17个气象站点观测资料,采用线性倾向估计、 Mann-Kendall突变检验和相关分析等方法,对河南省霜冻日期时空变化特征及其与地理因子的关系进行分析,采用R/S分析法预测霜冻日期的未来趋势.结果表明,1960-2019年河南省平均初霜日期为11月8日,终霜日期为3月28日,平均无霜期224 d. 60年来初霜日以2.66 d/10a的速率推迟,终霜日以-2.88 d/10a的速率提前,无霜期以5.54 d/10a的速率显著延长. 21世纪10年代初霜日最晚,终霜日最早,无霜期最长.初霜日期于2004年发生突变,终霜日和无霜期于1998年发生突变.从空间分布来看,河南省初霜日自南向北逐渐提前,终霜日自南向北逐渐推迟,无霜期自南向北逐渐缩短.未来河南省初霜日期推迟,终霜日提前和无霜期延长的趋势将会延续,初、终霜日和无霜期主要受纬度的影响.Based on the observation data of 17 meteorological stations in Henan from 1960 to 2019, this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of frost date and its relationship with geographical factors in Henan using the methods of linear tendency estimati, Mann Kendall mutation test and correlation analysis. The future trend of frost date was predicted by R/S analysis. The results show that the average first frost date in Henan was November 8, the last frost date was March 28, and the average frost-free period was 224 d during 1960-2019. In the past 60 years, the first frost day was delayed at the rate of 2.66 d/10 a, the last frost day was advanced at the rate of-2. 88 d/10 a, and the frost-free period was significantly prolonged at the rate of 5.54 d/10 a. The latest first frost day, the earliest last frost day, and the longest frost-free period were in the early of 2010 s. The time series of the first frost date showed a climatic abrupt change in 2004, the last frost day and the frost-free period showed the climatic abrupt changes in 1998. In terms of the spatial distribution, the first frost day in Henan was gradually advanced from south to north, the last frost day was gradually delayed from south to north, and the frost-free period was gradually shortened from south to north. In the future, the delay of first frost day, the advance of last frost day and the extension of frost-free period may continue. The first and last frost day and frost-free period were mainly affected by latitude and reached a significant level.

关 键 词：初霜日 终霜日 无霜期 时空变化特征 河南省 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]