基于层次分析法的PPP综合管廊项目全寿命周期风险量化研究  

Research on Life Cycle Risk Quantification of PPP Comprehensive Pipe Gallery Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：刘璨[1] 姜安民 董彦辰[1,2] 熊奇伟 LIU Can;JIANG An-min;DONG Yan-chen;XIONG Qi-wei(Hunan Urban Construction College,Xiangtan 411100 China;School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004 China;Friendship International Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd,Changsha 410005 China)

机构地区：[1]湖南城建职业技术学院,湖南湘潭411100 [2]中南林业科技大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410004 [3]友谊国际工程咨询股份有限公司,湖南长沙410005

出　　处：《科技创新与生产力》2022年第11期67-70,共4页Sci-tech Innovation and Productivity

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(21C0992);湖南建工集团科技计划项目(JGJTK2021-20);湖南城建职业技术学院科学研究项目(20YJZD02;21YJYB14)。

摘　　要：PPP综合管廊项目全寿命周期内存在的风险因素较多且较为复杂,对项目风险进行科学的管理与量化研究具有一定的现实意义。首先,参考相关文献并结合工程实际情况建立PPP综合管廊项目全寿命周期风险量化指标体系;其次,基于该指标体系并结合层次分析法构建风险量化模型;最后,结合工程实例进行风险量化研究,得出建设前期风险、建设期风险、运营期风险、环境及其他风险分别为中等、中等、较低、较低,总体风险为中等的结论。基于层次分析法的PPP综合管廊项目全寿命周期风险量化模型操作简单、可靠,具有一定的应用与推广价值。There are many and complex risk factors in the life cycle of PPP comprehensive pipe gallery project, so it is of practical significance to conduct scientific management and quantitative research on it. Firstly, this paper establishes the life cycle risk quantification index system of PPP comprehensive pipe gallery project by referring to relevant literature and combining with the actual situation of the project. Secondly, it builds a risk quantification model based on the index system and the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, it carries out a risk quantification research based on a project example, and draws the conclusion that the risks in the early stage of construction, the risk in the construction period, the risk in the operation period, environmental risk and other risks are respectively medium, medium, low, low, and the overall risk is medium. The life cycle risk quantification model of PPP comprehensive pipe gallery project based on analytic hierarchy process is simple and reliable, which has certain application and popularization value.

关 键 词：综合管廊 PPP项目 层次分析法 全寿命周期 

分 类 号：TU990.3[建筑科学—市政工程] F299.24[经济管理—国民经济]