2021年3月24日拜城M_(S)5.4地震前拜城地震窗异常分析  

ANOMALY ON BAICHENG SEISMIC WINDOW BEFORE BAICHENG M_(S)5.4 EARTHQUAKE ON MARCH 24,2021

作　　者：张琳琳[1] 聂晓红[1] ZHANG Lin-lin;NIE Xiao-hong(Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2022年第4期297-302,共6页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：新疆地震科学基金(202104);自治区重点研发计划项目(2020B03006-3).

摘　　要：为了对2021年3月24日拜城M_(S)5.4地震前拜城地震窗异常指标做出评价,基于新疆地震台网综合定位结果,对新疆拜城地震台2008年1月~2021年3月微震观测记录进行检查,分析在S-P≤10 s范围内M_(L)≥1.0的小震月频度,当小震月频度≥70次时,则对应有M_(S)≥5.0中强地震发生,将70次/月作为拜城地震窗的异常标准,统计拜城地震窗异常与附近中强地震的对应关系。震例研究表明,拜城地震窗异常优势预测时段为6个月。拜城地震窗在拜城M_(S)5.4地震前2个月出现异常;拜城地震窗映震区域为天山中段M_(S)≥5.0地震;拜城地震窗的异常形态多数表现为高值。研究结果可为天山中段及地震窗邻近区域M_(S)≥5.0地震预测提供参考依据。In order to evaluate the abnormal indexes of Baicheng seismic window before Baicheng M_(S)5.4 earthquake on March 24,2021,based on the comprehensive positioning results of the Xinjiang Seismic Network,the microseismic observation records of Baicheng Seismic Station in Xinjiang from January 2008 to March 2021 were surveyed,and the monthly frequency of small earthquakes with M_(L)≥1.0 in the range of S-P≤10 s was analyzed.When the monthly frequency of small earthquakes is≥70,there was a corresponding occurrence of M_(S)≥5.0 moderate strong earthquakes.70 times/month was taken as the anomaly standard of Baicheng seismic window,and counted the corresponding relationship between the anomaly of Baicheng earthquake window and the nearby moderate strong earthquakes.The study of earthquake cases showed that the dominant prediction period of Baicheng earthquake window anomaly was 6 months.Baicheng earthquake window was abnormal 2 months before Baicheng M_(S)5.4 earthquake;The area reflected by the Baicheng earthquake window was the middle Tianshan M_(S)≥5.0 earthquake;The anomaly pattern of Baicheng earthquake window was mostly high.The research results can provide a reference for the prediction of earthquakes with M_(S)≥5.0 in the middle section of Tianshan Mountains and the area adjacent to the seismic window.

关 键 词：拜城地震窗 拜城M_(S)5.4地震 活动频次 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]