多准则层级交互的区域水资源短缺风险评价  

Regional Water Resource Shortage Risk Evaluation Based on Multi-criteria Hierarchical Interaction

作　　者：涂燕 赵莹[1] 王华裔 李宗敏 TU Yan;ZHAO Ying;WANG Huayi;LI Zongmin(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]四川大学商学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2022年第6期875-881,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71801177);教育部人文社科一般项目(18YJC630163).

摘　　要：区域水资源短缺将制约社会发展进程,同时威胁人与自然之间可持续发展。为对区域水资源短缺风险进行有效评价,建立了以水量、水质、环境和社会为二级准则的四维度指标体系;采用相关系数和标准差法(CCSD)和改进的ANPSort(IANPSort)方法进行多准则层级交互的区域水资源短缺风险综合评价;最后,对2020年我国西部地区各省(自治区、直辖市)进行水资源短缺风险评价分级,通过灵敏度分析验证了该方法的实用性和有效性。Regional water shortage will restrict social development and threaten the sustainable development between man and nature.In order to evaluate the risk of regional water shortage effectively,an indicator system was established based on four dimensions of"water quantity","water quality","environment"and"society"as secondary criteria.Then,the Correlation Coefficient and Standard Deviation(CCSD)method and the improved ANPSort(IANPSort)method were applied for conducting the comprehensive evaluation of regional water shortage risk based on multi-criteria level interaction.Finally,the water shortage risk evaluation of each provincial-level region in western China has been conducted,and the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified by sensitivity analysis.

关 键 词：水资源短缺 风险评价 多准则决策 CCSD ANPSort 

分 类 号：X915.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学]