俄乌冲突背景下德国在欧盟领导角色的式微  

Decline of Germany’s Leadership in the EU amid the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：郑春荣[1,2] 金欣 ZHENG Chunrong;JIN Xin

机构地区：[1]同济大学德国问题研究所/欧盟研究所,上海200092 [2]同济大学德国研究中心,上海200092

出　　处：《国际展望》2023年第1期58-81,155,共25页Global Review

基　　金：国家社科基金“重要国家和区域”重大研究专项(20VGQ011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突的爆发对欧洲的安全格局造成了极大冲击,作为欧盟重要支柱的德国曾成功化解了2014年第一次乌克兰危机,因此在此次俄乌冲突中也被期待可以再次发挥领导作用。通过对德国在俄乌冲突爆发前后表现的梳理,并在领导理论的框架下对俄乌冲突中德国领导角色的出现与否及其影响限度进行分析。总体而言,俄乌冲突凸显了德国在欧盟内领导角色式微的现状。虽然德国拥有领导欧盟的机会与意愿,在外交、安全和防务政策领域发挥了一定的领导作用来缓解局势与推动欧洲战略自主的建设,但是军事资源不足、欧盟内部的利益冲突、其他成员国的不满和质疑等因素削弱了德国的政治影响力,挤压了其行动空间。与第一次乌克兰危机中默克尔政府的表现相比,朔尔茨政府在欧盟的领导力明显弱化。德国在欧盟领导角色的式微也将对欧盟未来发展产生多方面的消极影响。The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has a great impact on the security landscape of Europe.Germany,as an important pillar of the EU,successfully defused the first Ukrainian crisis in 2014 and was therefore expected to play a leading role again this time.This article examines Germany’s performance before and after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and analyzes the(non-)emergence of German leadership and the limits of its influence within the framework of leadership theory.Overall,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the decline of Germany’s leadership in the EU.Although Germany has the opportunity and the will to lead the EU and has played to a certain degree a leading role in the areas of foreign,security,and defense policy to mitigate the situation and promote the building of European strategic autonomy,the lack of military resources,conflicting interests within the EU and the discontent and skepticism of other member states have weakened Germany’s political influence and squeezed the space for action.Compared to the performance of the Merkel government during the first Ukraine crisis,the Scholz government’s leadership in the EU has weakened significantly,which will also have a negative impact on the future development of the EU in many ways.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 德国外交 欧盟 领导角色 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]