机动车与非机动车事故严重度多因素影响分析  

Analysis of the multifactorial influence of motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle accident severity

作　　者：柴浩男 马彬[1,2,3] 李鹏辉 姜文龙 CHAI Haonan;MA Bin;LI Penghui;JIANG Wenlong(Mechanical Electrical Engineering School,Beijing Information Science&Technology University,Beijing 100192,China;Beijing Laboratory for New Energy Vehicles,Beijing 100192,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing,Beijing 100192,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;People′s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学机电工程学院,北京100192 [2]新能源汽车北京实验室,北京100192 [3]北京电动车辆协同创新中心,北京100192 [4]北京交通大学交通运输学院综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100044 [5]中国人民公安大学,北京100038

出　　处：《北京信息科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第6期38-45,56,共9页Journal of Beijing Information Science and Technology University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51608040);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(3212005);重庆技术创新与应用开发项目(cstc2019jscx-fxydX0041);公共安全行为科学与工程2022年公安学一流学科培优行动科技创新项目(2022KXGCKJ06)。

摘　　要：为探讨机动车与非机动车事故严重度的多因素影响情况,对某市的1304起真实机动车与非机动车碰撞事故数据进行研究。采用列联分析方法对事故严重度相关因素进行显著性分析,发现9类因素与事故严重度显著相关;建立C5.0决策树模型,对所提取的显著性因素进行关联性分析,根据混淆矩阵对分类进行评价并与未引入列联分析方法的分类结果进行对比;通过提取模型中的决策规则获得机动车与非机动车死亡事故多因素诱发路径。结果表明,引入列联分析避免了因掺杂对事故严重度无显著性影响的因素而引发的错误分类结果,且机动车类型是影响事故严重度的关键因素;而非机动车骑行者受教育程度、机动车与非机动车类型和时段因素是死亡事故的重要影响因素。In order to investigate the multifactorial influence of motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle accident severity,the data of 1304 actual motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle collision accidents in a city were analyzed.Firstly,crosstabs analysis was used to determine the significant factors correlated to motor vehicle-non-motor vehicle accident severity.It was found that nine factors were significantly associated with accident severity.Secondly,on this basis,the extracted significant factors were analyzed for correlation by building the C5.0 decision tree model,and the classification results were not only evaluated based on the confusion matrix,but also compared with the classification results without using crosstabs analysis.Finally,the multi-factor predisposition paths for motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle fatal accidents were obtained by decision rules.The results indicate that the introduction of crosstabs analysis avoids misclassification results due to adulteration with factors that have no significant effect on accident severity,and the key factor affecting accident severity is the type of motor vehicle;moreover,the non-motorized rider′s education,motorized and non-motorized vehicle types,and time period are main factors of fatal accidents.

关 键 词：安全工程 机动车与非机动车严重度 风险因素 多因素影响 C5.0决策树模型 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]