2010-2020年湖南省梅毒时空分布特征分析  

Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of syphilis in Hunan Province, 2010-2020

作　　者：张静航 高守芝[1] 陈曦[1] 郑军[1] 贺健梅[1] ZHANG Jing-hang;GAO Shou-zhi;CHEN Xi;ZHENG Jun;HE Jian-mei(Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changsha,Hunan 410005,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省疾病预防控制中心,湖南长沙410005

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2022年第12期1469-1472,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 对2010-2020年湖南省梅毒病例报告发病情况进行时空分布特征分析,为确定重点防控区域、制定有针对性的防治策略提供科学依据。方法 收集2010-2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病情况,使用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间自相关分析,使用SaTScan 9.7软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 2010-2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率总体呈上升趋势,年均增长6.27%。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2010-2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率呈正向空间自相关(Moran’s I=0.2454-0.4217,P<0.001)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,热点区域主要集中在长株潭城市群以及以怀化为中心的西部地区,冷点区域主要集中在以衡阳为中心的南部地区。分阶段时空扫描分析结果显示,2010-2020年探测出4个聚集区域,2010-2015年探测出7个聚集区域,2016-2020年探测出6个聚集区域。结论 2010-2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率呈上升趋势,表现出明显的空间聚集性。分阶段时空扫描聚集区域数量减少,梅毒控制规划取得一定成效,仍需持续关注梅毒报告发病重点区域。Objective To analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of reported syphilis cases in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020,and to provide a scientific basis for determining the key prevention and control areas and formulating targeted prevention and treatment strategies.Methods We collected the reported incidence of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020.ArcGIS 10.8 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis,and SaTScan 9.7 software for spatio-temporal scanning analysis.Results The reported incidence rates of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020 showed an increasing trend,with an average annual growth rate of 6.27%.Results from global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the reported incidence rates of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020 showed positive spatial autocorrelation(Moran’s I=0.2454-0.4217,P<0.001).Results from the Getis-Ord General G spatial autocorrelation analysis displayed that the hot spots were concentrated in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and the western region centered on Huaihua,while the cold spots were the southern region centered on Hengyang.Results from the phased spatio-temporal scanning analysis identified four cluster areas from 2010 to 2020,seven cluster areas in 2010-2015 and six cluster areas between 2016 and 2020.Conclusion The reported incidence rates of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020 presented an upward trend with obvious spatial clustering.Numbers of cluster areas through the phased spatio-temporal scanning analysis gradually decreased.The syphilis control program has achieved some success,and it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the key areas with reported syphilis cases.

关 键 词：梅毒 时空分布 空间自相关分析 时空扫描分析 热点 冷点 

分 类 号：R759[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]