GDM患者产后5年内T2D患病风险的预测模型  

Prediction Model of T2D Risk in GDM Patients within 5 Years Postpartum

作　　者：白杨 孙浩罡 蔡新添 冯露露 高欢 赵霞[2] BAI Yang;SUN Hao-gang;CAI Xin-tian;FENG Lu-lu;GAO Huan;ZHAO Xia(Shihezi Univerisity School of Medicine,Xinjiang Shihezi,832002;Department of Gynaecology and Obstetrics,the First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University School of Medicine,Xinjiang Shihezi,832008)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学医学院,新疆石河子832002 [2]石河子大学医学院第一附属医院妇产科,新疆石河子832008

出　　处：《农垦医学》2022年第4期289-293,325,共6页Journal of Nongken Medicine

摘　　要：目的:本研究旨在构建和验证一个预测妊娠期糖尿病(gestational diabetes mellitus,GDM)患者产后5年内2型糖尿病(type 2 diabetes,T2D)患病风险的预测模型。方法:本研究为一项随访中位时间长达5年的回顾性队列研究,共有957例GDM患者被纳入本研究。应用单因素与多因素Cox回归模型分析GDM患者产后5年内T2D发病风险的独立危险因素。应用R(4.0.1版)构建并验证预测GDM患者产后5年内T2D发病风险的预测模型。结果:列线图模型中包括了以下五个独立预测因子:怀孕年龄、糖尿病家族史、孕前体质指数、妊娠期高血压疾病和孕24~28周OGTT 2h血糖水平。在建模队列中,该模型的AUC值为0.87(95%CI:0.80~0.94);在验证队列中,该模型的AUC值为0.86(95%CI:0.78~0.92)。结论:本模型可以有效地预测GDM妇女产后5年内发生T2D的风险,有助于及时干预,降低T2D的发病率。Objective:The purpose of this study was to construct and validate a predictive model for predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2D)in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)within 5 years after delivery.Methods:This is a retrospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 5 years.A total of 957 patients with GDM were included in this study.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the independent risk factors of T2D in GDM patients within 5 years after delivery.R(version 4.0.1)was used to construct and verify the predictive model for T2D risk in GDM patients within 5 years after delivery.Results:The following five independent predictors were included in the nomogram:age at pregnancy,family history of diabetes,pre-pregnancy body mass index,hypertensive disorders in pregnancy and OGTT 2h glucose level at 24-28 weeks of gestation.In the modeling cohort,the nomogram had an AUC value of 0.87(95%CI:0.80 to 0.94);in the validation cohort,the nomogram had an AUC value of 0.86(95%CI:0.78 to 0.92).Conclusions:The nomogram can effectively predict the risk of T2D in women with GDM within 5 years postpartum,which can help to intervene in time to reduce the incidence of T2D.

关 键 词：妊娠期糖尿病 2型糖尿病 预测模型 队列研究 

分 类 号：R714.256[医药卫生—妇产科学] R587.1[医药卫生—临床医学]