泸-石高速甘草沟泥石流发育特征及危险性分析  

Development characteristics and risk analysis of debris flow in Gancao Gully in Lu-Shi expressway

作　　者：魏星宇 沈军辉[1] 吴俊杰 周辀 WEI Xingyu;SHEN Junhui;WU Junjie;ZHOU Zhou(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2022年第6期229-238,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41572308)。

摘　　要：拟建泸定至石棉段高速公路(泸-石路)沿线泥石流灾害频发,甘草沟是较为典型的一条泥石流沟。通过现场调查和室内试验,文中以该泥石流的形成条件分析为基础,对甘草沟进行了危险性评价计算。研究得出:甘草沟物源总量为235.90×10^(4)m^(3),动储量为23.09×10^(4)m^(3),在20、50、100年一遇的频率下,一次冲出固体物质量为27 530、3 1651、34 783 m^(3);危险范围最大长度为712、795、857 m,危险范围最大宽度为765、851、917 m;该泥石流处于发展期,危险性属于中度危险。Debris flow disasters occur frequently along the proposed highway from Luding to Shimian,and Gancao Gully is a typical one.Through field investigation and laboratory test,this paper carried out the risk assessment calculation of Gancao Gully based on the analysis of formation conditions of the debris flow.The results show tha the total provenance of Gancao Gully is 235.90×10^(4)m^(3),and the dynamic reserve is 23.09×10^(4)m^(3).At the frequency of once in 20,50 and 100 years,the mass of the solid washed out at one time is 27 530 m^(3),31 651 m^(3)and 34 783m^(3),the maximum length of the hazard range is 712 m,795 m and 857 m,and the maximum width of the hazard range is 765 m,851 m and 917 m.The debris flow is in the development period,and the danger is moderate.

关 键 词：泸-石高速公路 泥石流 发育特征 危险性评价 灰色关联分析 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]