基于ESDA-GIS的湖南省碳排放时空差异动态演化分析  

An Analysis of Dynamic Evolution of Spatial and Temporal Differences in Carbon Emissions in Hunan Province Based on ESDA-GIS

作　　者：陈培红 王鹏[1] 李春红 Chen Peihong;Wang Peng;Li Chunhong(College of City and Tourism,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang Hunan 421002,China)

机构地区：[1]衡阳师范学院地理与旅游学院,湖南衡阳421002

出　　处：《衡阳师范学院学报》2022年第6期104-111,共8页Journal of Hengyang Normal University

摘　　要：碳排放具有明显的时空分布特征,研究区域碳排放时空动态演化格局,为寻找适宜的减排空间提供实践思路。基于CEADs数据库1997年至2017年中国县域单元碳排放数据,运用探索性空间分析(ESDA)、标准差椭圆及统计分析方法相结合,探讨了湖南省近20年碳排放空间差异动态演变特征。结果表明:(1)湖南省各县区的碳排放量经历了快速的增长过程,碳排放量有两个明显变化阶段,即1997-2011年大幅度增加阶段和2012-2017年波动式上升增长阶段;(2)在空间分布上,湖南省县区中部和东部碳排放量较高,主要在长株潭和环洞庭湖地区;(3)湖南省县区碳排放具有显著的空间自相关性,全局Moran’s I指数逐渐降低,碳排放从空间集聚性向空间异质性发展;(4)标准差椭圆呈现出碳排放的重心在湘乡市,碳排放的移动方向为东南-西北格局,整体上碳排放表现为发散的方向比较稳定。Carbon emissions have obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. Studying the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution pattern of regional carbon emissions provides practical ideas for finding suitable emission reduction space. Based on the latest research results of China’s county unit carbon emission data from 1997 to 2017, this paper uses ESDA, standard deviation ellipse and statistical analysis methods to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission spatial differences in Hunan Province in the past 20 years. The results show that:(1) The carbon emissions of counties and districts in Hunan Province have experienced a rapid growth process, and there are two obvious changes in carbon emissions, namely, the substantial increase stage from 1997 to2011 and the fluctuating increase stage from 2012 to 2017;(2) In spatial distribution, the central and eastern parts of county carbon emissions in Hunan Province are higher, mainly in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Region and Dongting Lake area;(3) Carbon emissions in counties and districts of Hunan Province have obvious spatial auto-correlation, global Moran ’ s I index decreases gradually,and carbon emissions develop from spatial agglomeration to spatial heterogeneity;(4) The standard deviation ellipse shows the center of gravity of carbon emissions in Xiang Xiang City. The movement direction of carbon emissions is southeast-northwest pattern, and the direction of carbon emissions is relatively stable.

关 键 词：碳排放 空间自相关 时空格局 湖南省县域 

分 类 号：X508[环境科学与工程—环境工程]