基于MaxEnt模型的油麦吊云杉西藏潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of Tibet's Potential Suitable Areas for Picea brachytyla Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：舒骏生 彭玺 张晓晨 陈昕[2] SHU Jun-sheng;PENG Xi;ZHANG Xiao-chen;CHEN Xin(Central South Inventory and Planning Institute of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Changsha 410014,Hunan,China;Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,College of Biology and the Environment,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]国家林业和草原局中南调查规划设计院,湖南长沙410014 [2]南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心/生物与环境学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2023年第1期66-72,共7页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：生物多样性保护重大工程专项(8-3-7-22-1)。

摘　　要：为预测西藏自治区在实地调查中不可到达区域内油麦吊云杉的分布情况,通过MaxEnt生态位模型软件和ArcGIS软件预测其在西藏的潜在分布范围,用ROC曲线检测预测精度,用刀切法筛选主要环境变量,并通过主要环境变量的响应曲线分析适宜油麦吊云杉的生态环境条件。结果表明,建立的预测模型的A UC为0.992,预测精度高;油麦吊云杉在西藏的分布范围主要位于藏东南区域,位于巴宜区、墨脱县的雅鲁藏布江沿线山地,波密县易贡藏布和帕隆藏布沿线山地,察隅县贡日嘎布曲、察隅河沿线山地,左贡县、芒康县南面的怒江、澜沧江沿线山地,与现地调查结果高度契合;年降水量、顶层土壤有机碳含量和年均温变化范围等条件对油麦吊云杉分布的影响最大。In order to predict the distribution of Picea brachytyla in the unreachable area in the second national key protected wild plant resource survey in Tibet,the potential distribution area in Tibet was predicted by MaxEnt niche model software and ArcGIS software in this study.The prediction accuracy was tested by ROC curve,and the main environmental variables by jackknife test.The ecological environment conditions suitable for P.brachytyla were analyzed by the response curve of the main environmental variables.The results showed that the prediction accuracy was high,and the AUC value of the prediction model was 0.992.The distribution range of P.ascendens in Tibet was mainly located in the mountains along the rivers in the southeaster Tibet:the Yarlung Zangbo River in Bayi District and Medog County,the Yigong Zangbo and Palong Zangbo in Bomi County,the Gongrigabuqu and Chayu River in Chayu County,and the Nujiang River and Lancang River in the south of Zuogong County and Mangkang County,which were highly consistent with the results of the field investigation.The annual precipitation,organic carbon content in top soil and the range of annual temperature had the greatest impact on the distribution of P.brachytyla.

关 键 词：油麦吊云杉 最大熵模型 适生区 环境因子 

分 类 号：S791.18[农业科学—林木遗传育种]