中国城市房价波动的周期性及集群分解  

Cyclicality and Cluster Decomposition of Urban House Price Fluctuations in China

作　　者：郑挺国[1,2] 龚金金 宋涛 ZHENG Tingguo;GONG Jinjin;SONG Tao(School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;Liwan District High Quality Development Research Center,Guangzhou 510145,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,厦门361005 [2]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院,厦门361005 [3]荔湾区高质量发展研究中心,广州510145

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2022年第4期946-970,共25页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71973110,72033008);中央高校基本科研业务费(20720191038)。

摘　　要：基于聚类马尔可夫转移模型,本文在城市层面刻画了国内房价波动的周期性变化.研究结果表明,70个大中城市房价在经历全国性扩张和收缩之外,尚存在两个特异性收缩集群,集群内城市享有共同的房价收缩期,但集群间的房价收缩期呈现异质性.涵盖一线及热门二线城市的特异性集群对全国房价的扩张具有领先作用,而包括中西部城市的特异性集群收缩则对全国性收缩具有预警作用,且中西部城市房价在收缩期内的下跌幅度高于一二线城市,表征欠发达地区的房价更具脆弱性.此外,住房需求及供给因素对不同城市房价周期的同步变化具有异质性作用,一线及热门二线城市房价周期的同步运动更易受住房需求因素的影响,而供给因素则在中西部地区房价周期的同步变化中扮演着重要角色.本文结果对房地产市场调控的“因群施策”及房价异常波动的差异化熨平策略具有重要启示.Based on the clustered Markov switching model,this paper investigates the cyclicality of house price fluctuations at the city level.The results show that,in addition to the national expansion and contraction,house price fluctuations in 70 large and medium-sized cities form two idiosyncratic clusters.Cities within the same cluster share a common period of housing price contraction,and the house price contraction periods vary across clusters.The idiosyncratic cluster covering Tier 1 and popular Tier 2 cities leads the national expansion,while the contraction of idiosyncratic cluster including Midwestern cities serves as an early warning for a national contraction.It is also found that house prices in Midwestern cities fall more than those in Tier 1 and Tier2 cities during the contraction period,indicating that house prices in underdeveloped areas are more vulnerable.Additionally,housing demand and supply play different roles in the co-movements of housing price cycles across cities.The co-movements of housing price cycles in first-tier and popular second-tier cities are more susceptible to housing demand factors,while housing supply mainly drives the co-movements of housing price cycles in Midwestern cities.The findings of this paper hence lend support to the "Cluster-Specific" approach in real estate market regulation and differentiated strategies in smoothing abnormal housing price fluctuations.

关 键 词：城市房价 房价周期 聚类马尔可夫转移模型 集群分解 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]