基于AHP—模糊综合评价法的洪涝灾害应急能力评估  

Evaluation of flood disaster emergency capability based on AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

作　　者：李玉麟 兰泽全[1] 张丽娜 旷永华 LI Yulin;LAN Zequan;ZHANG Lina;KUANG Yonghua(School of Safety Engineering,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao,065201,China;Guizhou Panjiang Cleaned Coal Co.,Ltd.,Liupanshui,553536,China)

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院安全工程学院,北京东燕郊065201 [2]贵州盘江精煤股份有限公司,贵州六盘水553536

出　　处：《华北科技学院学报》2022年第6期56-61,共6页Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology

摘　　要：洪涝灾害是一种影响范围广、造成损失严重的自然灾害。为了解我国应对洪涝灾害的能力现状,做到补短板、强弱项,在系统分析大量案例的基础上,从应急准备能力、监测预警能力、应急响应能力三个方面构建了应急能力评估指标体系,并细化为17个二级指标,尤其增加并突出了“思想准备”这个二级指标。应用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,以国内某地区2021年7月发生的洪涝灾害为例,对其应急处置过程和能力进行了较为详细的评估。结果表明,采用AHP—模糊综合评价法构建的洪涝灾害应急能力评估模型,能够较为客观地评估洪涝灾害的应急能力,对于完善应急准备、提升监测预警和应急处置能力具有较强的指导意义和参考价值。Flood and waterlogging disaster is a kind of natural disaster that has a wide range of impacts and causes serious losses.In order to understand the current situation of China's ability to deal with flood and waterlogging disaster,and make up for weaknesses,strengths and weaknesses,on the basis of the systematic analysis of a large number of cases,an evaluation index system of emergency response capacity is built from three aspects:emergency preparedness capability,monitoring and early warning capability,and emergency response capability,and is refined into 17 secondary indicators,especially the secondary indicator of"ideological preparation"is added and highlighted.With the application of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,taking the flood and waterlogging disaster in July 2021 in a certain area in China as an example,the emergency response process and capacity are evaluated in detail.The results show that the evaluation model of flood and waterlogging emergency response capability constructed by AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can objectively evaluate the emergency response capability of flood and waterlogging disaster,and has strong guiding significance and reference value for improving emergency preparedness,enhancing monitoring and early warning and emergency response capability.

关 键 词：应急能力 洪涝灾害 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 评估模型 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]