基于时间序列排队模型的泊位服务水平研究  

Research on Berth Service Level Based on Time Series Queuing Model

作　　者：裴彩月 王文[1] 石自强 PEI Cai-yue;WANG Wen;SHI Zi-qiang(Navigation College,Jimei University,Xiamen Fujian 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学航海学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《广州航海学院学报》2022年第4期10-15,共6页Journal of Guangzhou Maritime University

基　　金：福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAT210221);厦门市自然科学基金(3502Z20227212);福建省自然科学基金(2019J01687)。

摘　　要：采用基于时间序列的排队模型,通过R/R/c/∞/n模型对船舶的个体参数及泊位系统的系统参数进行计算,对船舶的在港动态过程以及泊位的利用情况进行实时跟踪,确定船舶所接受的服务水平及码头所提供的服务水平.本模型改进了经典排队模型输入和服务过程必须服从某种分布的缺点,能够实际反映码头的运行效率和服务水平.根据港口历史的运营情况,假设到达船舶数目变化,预测船舶数目变化后的服务水平,模拟结果能为码头企业调整码头业务、建设新泊位以及航运企业选择船舶停靠港口提供理论依据.The queuing model based on time series is used to calculate the individual parameters of the ship and the system parameters of the berth system through the R/R/c/∞/n model.The dynamic process of the ship in port and the utilization of the berth are tracked in real time to determine the service level received by the ship and the service level provided by the wharf.This model improves the disadvantage that the input and service process of the classical queuing model must obey a certain distribution,and can actually reflect the operation efficiency and service level of the terminal.According to the historical operation of the port,assuming the change of the number of arriving ships,the service level after the change of the number of ships is predicted.The simulation results can provide a theoretical basis for the port enterprises to adjust the port business,construct new berths and choose the port for shipping enterprises to call at.

关 键 词：泊位 服务水平 排队模型 时间序列 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]