“碳达峰”目标下中国出口碳排放福利绩效及预测  

The Measurement and Prediction of Carbon Emission Welfare Performance from China’s Export Trade under the “Carbon Peak” Strategy

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 吴驰宸 冀宪宇 HU Jian-bo;WU Chi-chen;JI Xian-yu(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;Shanxi Economic Construction Investment Group,Taiyuan 030002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]山西经济建设投资集团,山西太原030002

出　　处：《经济问题》2023年第1期37-43,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划重点课题“绿色发展背景下贵州碳生产率的测算及影响因素研究”(20GZZD62)。

摘　　要：在“碳达峰”目标战略背景下,有效平衡经济增长、环境污染和福利水平的关系具有重要研究价值。运用1997—2019年中国省级面板数据测度了出口贸易碳排放的福利绩效,并将其分为八大区域分析各区域出口贸易碳排放福利绩效的差异,同时基于“碳达峰”目标预测了出口贸易碳排放福利绩效的演变趋势。得到如下结论:整体维度上仅有青海、贵州、甘肃、北京和吉林的出口贸易碳排放福利绩效有所增加,其余省区市均出现了不同程度的下降,但“十二五”以来大多数省区市的出口贸易碳排放福利均实现了正向增长;自“十二五”以来,除北部沿海区域的出口贸易碳排放福利绩效有所下降外,其余7个区域的出口贸易碳排放福利绩效均实现了正向发展;青海、甘肃和贵州的出口贸易碳排放福利绩效增长显著,同时以西北区域和西南区域为代表的区域实现了出口贸易碳排放福利绩效的快速增长。Under the background of “carbon peak” strategy,it is of great research value to effectively balance the relationship among economic growth,environmental pollution,and welfare level.This paper uses China’s provincial panel data from 1997 to 2019 to measure the welfare performance of carbon emission in export trade,divides it into eight regions,analyzes the differences of carbon emission welfare performance in each region,and forecasts the evolution trend of carbon emission welfare performance in export trade based on the “carbon peak” strategy.The conclusions are as follows: Overall,only Qinghai,Guizhou,Gansu,Beijing,and Jilin have increased the carbon emission welfare performance of export trade,and the other provinces have decreased to varying degrees.However,since the 12th Five Year Plan,the carbon emission welfare of export trade in most provinces has achieved growth. Since the 12th Five Year Plan,except that the carbon emission welfare performance of export trade in the northern coastal region has decreased,the carbon emission welfare performance of export trade in the other seven regions has achieved positive development. The carbon emission welfare performance of export trade in Qinghai,Gansu and Guizhou has increased significantly.At the same time,the regions represented by Northwest and southwest regions have realized the rapid growth of carbon emission welfare performance of export trade.

关 键 词：出口贸易碳排放 福利绩效差异 碳达峰 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]