我国粮食种植碳排放量变化趋势与驱动因素研究  

A Study on the Changing Trend and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Grain Planting in China

作　　者：鲁庆尧 杨春红[2] LU Qing-yao;YANG Chun-hong(School of Logistics Transportation and Tourism,Jiangsu Vocational College of Finance&Economics,Huaian 223003,China;School of Economics and Management,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian 223001,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏财经职业技术学院物流与交通旅游学院,江苏淮安223003 [2]淮阴师范学院经济与管理学院,江苏淮安223001

出　　处：《经济问题》2023年第1期114-121,共8页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“乡村振兴战略背景下乡村旅游供应链整合对策研究”(18BGL146);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金“共同富裕目标下农村相对贫困测度及其长效治理机制研究”;江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目“江苏省乡村旅游竞争力分析及提升路径研究”(2020SJA1784)。

摘　　要：以1990—2020年为考察期,对我国粮食种植碳排放量的变化趋势及内部结构进行剖析,采用LMDI模型将驱动因素分解为要素结构效应、消耗强度效应、粮食单产效应和播种面积效应。结果表明:对粮食主产区而言,粮食单产和消耗强度对碳排放量增长率的影响较大,播种面积次之,要素结构最小。粮食单产始终助推碳排放量增长;消耗强度和要素结构对碳排放量增长率的影响均是先助推、后抑制;而播种面积是先抑制、后助推碳排放量增长。对非粮食主产区而言,粮食单产和消耗强度对碳排放量增长率的影响较大,要素结构次之,播种面积最小。消耗强度始终助推碳排放量增长;粮食单产是先助推、后抑制碳排放量增长;播种面积和要素结构是先抑制、后助推、再抑制碳排放量增长。Taking 1990—2020 as an investigation period,this paper analyzes the changing trend and internal structure of carbon emissions from grain planting in China by using LMDI model to decompose the driving factors into factor structure effect,consumption intensity effect,grain yield effect and sown area effect.The results show that for the major grain producing areas,grain yield and consumption intensity have a great influence on the growth rate of carbon emissions,followed by the sown area and the smallest factor structure.Grain yield always boosts the growth of carbon emissions;The effects of consumption intensity and element structure on the growth rate of carbon emissions are first boosted and then suppressed;However,the sown area firstly suppresses and then boosts the growth of carbon emissions.For non-major grain producing areas,grain yield per unit area and consumption intensity have great influence on the growth rate of carbon emissions,followed by factor structure and the smallest sown area.Consumption intensity always promotes the growth of carbon emissions;Grain yield per unit area is to boost the growth of carbon emissions first and then suppress it;Sowing area and element structure are the first to restrain,then to boost and then to restrain the growth of carbon emissions.

关 键 词：粮食种植 碳排放量 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F326.22[经济管理—产业经济]