“政策流变”事件中网民负面情绪传播研究——以沈阳大学生零首付买房新政紧急叫停为例  

Research on the Spread of Netizens’Negative Emotions in“Policy Changes”——Take the Emergency Stop of the New Policy of Zero Down Payment Housing Purchase for College Students in Shenyang as an Example

作　　者：王益君[1] 张瑜[1] WANG Yijun;ZHANG Yu(Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学,西安710055

出　　处：《情报工程》2022年第5期100-114,共15页Technology Intelligence Engineering

基　　金：中国商业统计学会项目“政策流变引发的舆情传播及风险研究——以沈阳毕业生零首付政策变更为例”(2021STY15);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目“新冠肺炎疫情对金融业系统性风险冲击的影响及对策研究”(18JK0433)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]本研究旨在分析政策流变事件中网民负面情绪的传播,为政府及时控制此类公共政策流变舆论走向并稳定舆情的走势提供参考。[方法/过程]本文基于“沈阳大学生零首付买房新政紧急叫停事件”相关微博的评论与转发数据,采用转移熵法计算政策流变事件中的网民负面情绪传播矩阵,并利用社会网络分析方法对政策流变事件中网民负面情绪传播效应进行实证研究,刻画了“沈阳大学生零首付买房新政紧急叫停事件”网民负面情绪传播的网络结构。[结果/结论]从政策流变事件中的网民负面情绪传播矩阵来看,政策流变事件中网民负面情绪传播效应并不一定是对称的。从网民负面情绪传播的有向网络图来看,当网民负面情绪出现后,会通过网络链条进行传播,并且网民负面情绪传播的关键节点会发生变化。因此,有关监管部门可以通过找出网络中的主要链条与关键节点,从其主要传播路径上进行控制,防止政策流变事件中网民负面情绪的进一步扩散。[Objective/Signifcance]The purpose of this study is to analyze the spread of netizens’negative emotions in policy changes,and to provide a reference for the government to control the direction of the public opinion in policy changes and stabilize the trend of public opinion in a timely manner.[Methods/Processes]Based on the data of the comments on Sina Weibo and the Weibo reposts related to the hot topic of“emergency stop of the new policy of zero down payment housing purchase for college students in Shenyang”,we use the transfer entropy to calculate the netizens’negative emotions matrix of policy changes and the social network analysis method to analyze the propagation effect of the netizens’negative emotions triggered by policy changes.Empirical research depicts the network structure of the spread of the netizens’negative emotions triggered by the“emergency stop of the new policy of zero down payment housing purchase for college students in Shenyang”.[Results/Conclusions]According to the netizens’negative emotions matrix of policy changes,the propagation effect of the netizens’negative emotions is not necessarily symmetrical.From the directed network graph of the effect of netizens’negative emotions,the netizens’negative emotions will spread through the network chains when they appear,and the key nodes of netizens’negative emotions will change.Therefore,the relevant regulatory authorities could notice the main chains and the key nodes in the network,which might play an important role in preventing the further spread of netizens’negative emotions in policy changes.

关 键 词：负面情绪传播 政策流变 转移熵 社会网络分析 

分 类 号：G35[文化科学—情报学] G206