1961-2019年广西喀斯特地区极端气候事件时空变化规律  

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Climate Events in Karst Areas of Guangxi from 1961 to 2019

作　　者：陈燕丽 谢映 张会[2] 韦春霞 Chen Yanli;Xie Ying;Zhang Hui;Wei Chunxia(Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanning,Guangxi 530022,China;Baoding Meteorological Bureau,Baoding,Hebei 071030,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所,广西南宁530022 [2]保定市气象局,河北保定071030

出　　处：《广西林业科学》2022年第6期859-865,共7页Guangxi Forestry Science

基　　金：广西科技厅重点研发项目(桂科AB20159022,桂科AB21238010);基本科研业务费重点项目(2019Z010)。

摘　　要：广西喀斯特地区是典型的生态敏感脆弱区,了解该地区极端气候事件变化规律可为其石漠化治理和植被保护恢复提供科学参考。基于1961—2019年逐日气象观测资料,采用RClimDex软件计算6个极端气温指数和2个极端降水指数,运用Mann-Kendall法和线性趋势分析法分析广西喀斯特地区极端气候事件时空变化特征。结果表明,1961—2019年,冷昼日数(TX10p)、冷夜日数(TN10p)和冷持续日数(CSDI)均减少,暖昼日数(TX90p)、暖夜日数(TN90p)和暖持续日数(WSDI)均增加,研究区对全球变暖为正响应,气温变化以变暖趋势为主,夜间气温的增加幅度比白天大。近60年,TN10p、TX90p、TN90p和CSDI发生明显突变。空间分布上,TX10p、TN10p和CSDI变化趋势具有相似性,减少趋势明显地区多集中在百色市和桂林市。TX90p、TN90p和WSDI空间分布具有相似性,增加趋势明显地区集中在百色市东北和西南部。大部分地区强降水量(R95p)和极强降水量(R99p)呈增加趋势,R99p增加趋势更明显;近60年,两者均未发生明显突变。空间分布上,R95p和R99p由西南向东北均呈增加趋势,增加趋势较明显地区集中在桂林市。Karst areas in Guangxi are typical ecologically sensitive and vulnerable areas.Understanding variations of extreme climate events in these areas can provide scientific reference for control of rocky desertification and vegetation protection and restoration.Based on daily meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2019,six extreme temperature indices and two extreme precipitation indices were calculated by RClimDex software,and Mann-Kendall method and linear trend analysis method were used to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme climate events in karst areas of Guangxi.Results showed that from 1961 to 2019,cool days(TX10p),cool nights(TN10p)and cold spell duration indicator(CSDI)decreased,while warm days(TX90p),warm nights(TN90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)increased.Study area had positive response to global warming,with predominantly warming trend in temperature change and a greater increase in nighttime temperatures than in daytime.TN10p,TX90p,TN90p and CSDI had obvious mutations in the past 60 years.Change trends of TX10p,TN10p and CSDI were similar in spatial distribution,and areas with obvious de⁃screasing trend were concentrated in Baise city and Guilin city.Spatial distributions of TX90p,TN90p and WS⁃DI were similar,and areas with obvious increasing trend were concentrated in the northeast and southwest of Baise city.In most areas,heavy precipitation(R95p)and extreme precipitation(R99p)showed increasing trends,and increasing trend of R99p was more obvious.There were no obvious mutations for both R95p and R99p in the past 60 years.In spatial distribution,both R95p and R99p showed increasing trends from southwest to northeast,and obvious increasing trends were concentrated in Guilin city.

关 键 词：极端气候事件 喀斯特地区 MK检验 时空变化 

分 类 号：P463.22[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]