考虑项目间依赖关系的项目风险应对策略选择模型  

A method of selecting project risk response strategies in terms of project interdependencies

作　　者：张旭 白思俊[1] 郭云涛[1] 白礼彪[2] ZHANG Xu;BAI Sijun;GUO Yuntao;BAI Libiao(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi′an 710072,China;School of Economics and Management,Chang′an University,Xi′an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710072 [2]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2023年第1期167-175,共9页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71971173);陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2015R005);西北工业大学研究生创意创新种子基金资助(CX2020226)。

摘　　要：文章针对项目组合多项目间风险的相互依赖关系开展风险应对策略选择问题的研究。首先,文章在考虑项目组合结构动态性和复杂性的基础上,分析了项目间依赖关系对项目风险的影响,并利用设计结构矩阵方法进行度量。然后,文章采用心理账户理论和球形模糊集构建了以决策者效用最大化为目标的项目风险应对策略选择优化模型。最后,文章通过算例分析证明了所提方法的可行性和有效性,并分析了不同程度的项目间依赖作用以及心理账户对项目风险应对策略选择的影响。结果表明:1)项目间依赖关系对项目风险应对策略选择有重要影响;2)在达到最优应对预算之前应选择能应对更多风险的应对策略集;3)在达到最优应对预算之后项目间依赖作用不影响策略选择,但影响决策者的效用值;4)考虑心理账户能够提高应对预算的利用效果。In the era of VUCA, the uncertainties of the project execution in the light of factors and events affects the accomplishment of the project objectives. Hence, risk management prevails in the course of project management, which points to the process of identifying and evaluating the uncertain factors or events with a negative impact on the completion of project objectives through project implementation. It aims to mitigate the negative impact by taking appropriate risk response strategies. As a result, the selection of risk response strategies directly affects the consequence of project risk management. Most of the existing literature focused on the impact of the correlation between risks or processes in a single project on the selection of risk response strategies. However, in the practice of enterprise management, a project is usually managed in a certain project portfolio. During its execution process, the success and failure of other projects that it depends on may have impacts on its risks. Therefore, it is significant to include the influence of project interdependencies to determine the project risk response strategies.The paper aims to scientifically address such a problem by proposing a method to determine the project risk response strategies concerning the project interdependencies. First, it analyzed and measured the influence of project interdependencies on project risks by design structure matrix in relation to dynamic and complex portfolio structure. Then, concerning the mental behavior of decision makers and the actual evaluation behavior of experts, an optimization model of selecting project risk response strategies aiming at maximizing the utility of decision makers is established, by virtue of the mental accounts theory and spherical fuzzy set. This study is mainly divided into the following three parts: Firstly, the project interdependencies are introduced and classified based on the dynamic and complex project portfolio structure. Besides, it explained the influence of project interdependencies

关 键 词：项目间依赖关系 心理账户理论 球形模糊集 设计结构矩阵 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]