基于超网络的局部区域新冠肺炎传播仿真研究  

Simulation research on COVID-19 transmission in local area based on hypernetwork

作　　者：刘泉 李贺 贾媚媚 于凯 张新刚[1] LIU Quan;LI He;JIA Meimei;YU Kai;ZHANG Xingang(Henan Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Processing for Big Data of Digital Image,School of Computer Science and Technology,Nanyang Normal University,Nanyang 473061,China;School of Public Administration,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]南阳师范学院计算机科学与技术学院,河南省数字图像大数据智能处理工程研究中心,河南南阳473061 [2]新疆财经大学公共管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《南阳师范学院学报》2023年第1期29-36,共8页Journal of Nanyang Normal University

基　　金：河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2021-ZZJH-262);河南省自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(202300410301);河南省科技攻关项目(212102310481,222102320369);国家自然科学基金项目(62002180);河南省高等学校科学技术研究重点项目(23A520027,23A520038);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2019D01A22);新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金(21BTQ162);南阳市科技发展计划项目(KJGG095);南阳师范学院校级科研项目(ZX2017021)。

摘　　要：为模拟传染病传播中多人聚集的密接传染行为,基于SCEIR模型,使用超网络来构建社会接触网络,考虑潜伏期的持续时间和密切接触者的隔离措施,构建了一种基于超网络的新冠肺炎传播模型.仿真结果表明:出行管控措施越严格,最终的感染人数越少;随着感染者被治疗或隔离的概率增大,最终感染总人数减少,但当其增大到一定程度时,最终感染总人数下降幅度不再显著;对感染者和密切接触者的隔离措施,可以减少疾病的最终传播持续时间.In order to simulate the close contact infection between multiple people during the spread of infectious diseases,a hypernetwork-based spreading model of COVID-19 is constructed according to the SCEIR model.The new model uses hypernetwork to build a social contact network and takes the duration of incubation period and the isolation measures of close contacts into account.The simulation results show that:the stricter the travel control measures are,the smaller the infected population will be;as the probability of treatment or isolation of infected population increases,the total number of final infected population decreases;however when it reaches a certain value,the decrease of the total infectious population becomes less significant;isolation measures implemented on the infected and their close contacts can reduce the transmission duration.

关 键 词：超网络 局部区域 新冠肺炎 传染病 SCEIR模型 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]