基于SARIMA模型的中亚地区中药材需求预测研究  

Research on the Demand Forecast of Chinese Herbal Medicines in Central Asia Based on SARIMA Model

作　　者：王秀兰 朱革 Wang Xiulan;Zhu Ge(School of Economics and Management,Gansu University of Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou 730099,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃中医药大学经贸与管理学院,甘肃青兰州730099

出　　处：《亚太传统医药》2022年第12期6-10,共5页Asia-Pacific Traditional Medicine

基　　金：甘肃省软科学项目:后疫情甘肃中医药服务贸易中亚发展策略研究(20CX9ZA066)。

摘　　要：中亚五国作为“一带一路”沿线国家,自古以来就是我国中医药贸易的主要对象。基于2010年1月-2021年11月中亚五国中药材贸易月份数据,建立季节性差分自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA)的预测方法,发现了中亚地区对中药材的需求存在季节性规律,即中亚地区对中药材的需求高峰期在秋季(七月和九月);并且中亚地区对中药材的需求将持续增长。此预测结果将为政府、企业及药农在中药材贸易方面的未来行动策略提供参考。As countries along the Belt and Road,the five Central Asian countries have been the main objects of Chinese medicine trade since ancient times.Based on the monthly trade data of five Central Asian countries from January 2010 to November 2021,a seasonal difference autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA) was established to predict the demand for Chinese herbal medicines in Central Asia.It was found that the demand for Chinese herbal medicines in Central Asia was seasonal:the peak period of demand for Chinese herbal medicines in Central Asia was in autumn(July and September);demand for Chinese herbal medicines in Central Asia will continue to grow.The prediction results will provide reference for future action adjustment of government,enterprises and pharmaceutical farmers on Chinese herbal medicines.

关 键 词：SARIMA 中药材贸易 需求规律 中医药发展 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：R282.7[医药卫生—中药学] F753[医药卫生—中医学] F757[经济管理—国际贸易]