人口老龄化、资本价格扭曲与产业结构优化  

Population Aging, Capital Price Distortion and Optimization of Industrial Structure

作　　者：杨颖 朴英爱[2] YANG Ying;PIAO Ying-ai(Teaching and Research Office of Economics,Party School of Nantong Municipal Committee of CPC,Nantong 226007,China;Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun 132000,China)

机构地区：[1]中共南通市委党校经济学教研室,江苏南通226007 [2]吉林大学东北亚学院,长春132000

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2023年第2期65-78,共14页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国‘一带一路’与韩国‘朝鲜半岛新经济地图’‘新北方政策’战略对接”(19BGJ049)。

摘　　要：资本要素价格的市场扭曲程度不仅决定着要素相对配置效率、影响着产业结构调整方向,同时资本和劳动之间的替代对地区老龄化程度和劳动力技能结构也造成深远影响。构建两地区一般均衡框架,通过数值模拟的方式发现地区间老龄化程度加深会促使地区产业结构向服务业倾斜,而劳动力的流入不仅能够改善地区劳动力技能结构、稀释老龄化程度,同时能够对资本产生引致效应,带来地区资本深化的同时,促进产业结构向第二产业倾斜。进一步对理论模型的关键结论进行中介效应检验发现,地区老龄化程度对产业结构优化存在促进作用,而资本价格负向扭曲和劳动价格负向扭曲则会造成要素配置的冗余,不利于产业结构优化,中介效应对产业结构优化的阻滞效应大约为6.1%。The degree of market distortion of capital factor prices not only determines the relative allocation efficiency of factors but also affects the direction of industrial structure adjustment.At the same time,the substitution between capital and labor has a profound impact on the degree of regional population aging and skill structure of labor force.A two-region general equilibrium framework is constructed and by means of numerical simulation,this paper finds that the deepening of inter-regional population aging makes the regional industrial structure incline to service industry.Meanwhile,labor inflow can not only improve the skill structure of regional labor force,alleviate the degree of population aging,but also bring induced effect on capital and regional capital deepening,making regional industrial structure tilt towards the secondary industry.Mediating effect test is made on the key conclusions of the theoretical model,and it is found that the degree of regional population aging promotes the optimization of industrial structure,but the negative distortion of capital price and labor price will lead to the redundancy of factor allocation,which is not conducive to industrial structure optimization.The block effect caused by mediation effect on industrial structure optimization is about 6.1%.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 产业结构优化 两区域一般均衡模型 要素价格扭曲 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]