全球价值链嵌入、汇率变动与出口产品价格——基于中国的经验研究  

Global Value Chain Embedment,Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Export Prices:An Empirical Study of China

作　　者：盛斌 吕云龙[3] Sheng Bin;Lv Yunlong

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [3]中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《学术研究》2022年第12期107-114,211,共9页Academic Research

基　　金：高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“全球经济治理、国际贸易投资新规则与中国开放型经济新体制研究”(20JJD790003);文化名家暨“四个一批”人才自主选题项目“全球价值链背景下国际经济规则的重构及中国的角色”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：构建理论模型分析全球价值链分工背景下汇率变动对出口产品价格的影响,并运用中国企业—产品层面海关贸易数据库和中国工业企业数据库的合并数据进行实证发现,全球价值链嵌入会提高出口价格的汇率弹性,且随着汇率波动幅度扩大,全球价值链嵌入对出口价格的汇率弹性正向影响将增强。在控制了影响汇率传递的其他因素和变量测算误差等后,实证结论依然稳健。这意味着嵌入全球价值链的程度越深,贸易对汇率的敏感性就越弱。从影响机制看,全球价值链嵌入主要通过提高企业成本加成对汇率的弹性来增强出口产品价格对汇率变动的弹性。此外,全球价值链嵌入对异质产品和消费品出口价格的汇率弹性提升效应更大。This paper first constructs a theoretical model to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on export product prices under the background of global value chain,then conducts an empirical test using the combined data of China firm-Product level Customs Trade Database and China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2000 to 2013.This paper found that the price of China’s export products are less affected by exchange rate fluctuations,which means that the export pass-through effect of exchange rate is close to complete.GVC embedment can raise export prices of exchange rate flexibility.With the expansion of exchange rate fluctuations,the positive impact of GVC embedment on the exchange rate elasticity of export prices is increasing.After controlling for other factors influencing exchange rate transmission and variable measurement error,the empirical conclusion remains robust,means that the deeper of GVC embedment,the weaker trade respond to exchange rate fluctuations.From the perspective of influence mechanism,GVC embedment mainly improves the elasticity of export product prices to exchange rate changes by improving the elasticity of enterprises’markup to exchange rate.Finally,the effect of GVC embedding on the exchange rate elasticity of export prices of heterogeneous products and consumer goods are greater.

关 键 词：汇率 产品价格 全球价值链嵌入 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]