“九合一”选举与台湾地区政党政治的变化规律  

The “Nine-in-One” Elections and Pattern of Party Politics in Taiwan

作　　者：林冈[1] 吴维旭 田弘 LIN Gang;WU Weixu;TIAN Hong(School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030;School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030 [2]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《闽台关系研究》2022年第4期37-52,共16页Research on Fujian-Taiwan Relationship

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDA123);清华大学自主科研支持专项(2019THZWLJ06);清华大学公共管理学院2022年青年教师种子发展基金。

摘　　要：在2022年台湾地区县市长选举中,国民党大获全胜,民进党遭到惨败,台湾地区民众党失大于得。“九合一”选举结果显示,谋求连任的县市长享有继续执政的优势,在没有现任县市长参选的县市竞争较激烈,同时政党轮替的一般性规律仍起作用。选举结果再次呈现典型的“北蓝南绿”特征。台湾地区政治地理差异的形成有其复杂的历史、政治和经济原因。“北蓝南绿”选票结构的未来变化主要取决于南北经济结构的变化和人口流动趋向。During the 2022 “Nine-in-One” elections in Taiwan, the Kuomintang(KMT) achieved a great victory, the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) and pepole in Taiwan’s Party were defeated to a different degree. The outcome of the “Nine-in-One” elections shows that the incumbent city mayors and county magistrates enjoy the advantage of being reelected and more acute competitions will occur in cities and counties without incumbent competitors. The outcome of the elections demonstrates the typical characteristic of “North Blue and South Green, ” that is, that the KMT enjoys advantage in the north of Taiwan while the DPP is more influential in the south. Such geographical disparity in voter structure has been shaped by complicated historical, political, and economic factors. Its developmental trend in the future is mainly dependent on the change of north-south economic structure and population movement between the south and the north.

关 键 词：“九合一”选举 政党政治 政党轮替 “北蓝南绿” 国民党 民进党 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]