基于战争游戏思维的突发事件应急管理情报分析应用研究——以城市洪涝灾害为例  

Research on Emergency Management Intelligence Analysis Application Based on War Gaming Thinking: Taking Urban Flood Disaster as an Example

作　　者：陈彬 高峰 Chen Bin

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]延安大学图书馆,陕西延安716000 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第1期124-131,共8页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：2021年陕西省图书馆学会A类课题“公众科学视域下公共图书馆面向灾害信息弱势群体服务路径研究”的成果,项目编号:211020。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]新时期,突发事件应急决策快速响应的情报支持成为应急管理研究的重要内容。基于战争游戏思维的突发事件应急管理情报分析应用研究是以突发事件应急管理情报分析为核心、以战争游戏为实施方法而展开的一项针对突发事件应急决策快速响应的讨论。[方法/过程]首先,对突发事件应急管理情报分析相关研究进行文献回顾,并对MPRR模型及战争游戏进行理论概述;其次,在对突发事件应急管理痛点梳理的基础上,分析了战争游戏融入突发事件应急管理的适用性,同时构建了MPRR模型与战争游戏融合的情报分析框架,并展开相应的解析;最后,为验证该框架的可执行性,以城市洪涝灾害为例,从准备规划、实施模拟及总结评估三个阶段论证了城市洪涝灾害应急管理情报分析战争游戏实施的全过程。[结果/结论]研究认为,战争游戏在一定程度上丰富了突发事件应急决策快速响应的情报方法与理论,同时也为突发事件应急管理的临场处置与应急部署提供了积极的实践价值。[Purpose/significance] In the new era, intelligence support for rapid response to emergency decision-making has become an important part of emergency management.The application research of emergency management intelligence analysis based on war gaming thinking is a discussion of rapid response to emergency decision-making based on the core of emergency management intelligence analysis and the implementation method of war gaming.[Method/process] Firstly, the literature review is carried out on the related research on emergency management intelligence analysis, and the theoretical overview of the MPRR model and war gaming is carried out.Secondly, on the basis of sorting out the pain points of emergency management, the applicability of war games into emergency management is analyzed, and an intelligence analysis framework that fits the MPRR model and war games is constructed, and the corresponding analysis is carried out.Finally, in order to verify the practicability of the framework, taking urban flood disasters as an example, the whole process of the implementation of the urban flood disaster emergency management intelligence analysis war game is demonstrated from the three stages of preparation planning, implementation simulation and summary evaluation.[Result/conclusion] The study believes that war gaming have enriched the intelligence methods and theories of rapid response to emergency decision-making to a certain extent.At the same time, it also provides positive practical value for the on-site disposal and emergency deployment of emergency management.

关 键 词：战争游戏 突发事件 应急管理 MPRR模型 情报分析 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学] G350[政治法律—中外政治制度]