基于和谐论的黑河流域“水-经济-生态”发展结构评价与预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Water-economy-ecology Harmonious Development Structure in Heihe River Basin Based on Harmony Theory

作　　者：吴婕[1] 丁林[1] WU Jie;DING Lin(Gansu Provincial Water Conservancy Science Study Institute,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省水利科学研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第1期38-44,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51769002);甘肃省重点研发计划项目(20YF3NA011);甘肃省水利科研与技术推广计划项目(2021)。

摘　　要：以黑河流域为研究对象,基于和谐理论和可持续发展理论,以协调流域生态建设、经济社会发展、优化水土资源配置为目标,建立地表水过度开发区“水-经济-生态”系统和谐性评价指标体系,采用线性隶属度方法将不同和谐程度划分5个等级。根据黑河流域“水-经济-生态”三者协调发展目标并结合未来规划,确定可以反映水资源现状、地表水开发利用程度、农业灌溉、经济社会发展水平与生态环境状况等的14项评价指标,为流域和谐性评价提供依据。采用综合指数评价法计算黑河流域不同水平年不同情景模式下的体系综合和谐度,计算结果表明,不同情景下整体和谐度虽均呈现上升趋势,但2020年和谐度均低于0.4,均达不到一般和谐;2030年情景Ⅰ、Ⅱ和谐度小于0.6,而情景Ⅲ、Ⅳ和谐度大于0.6,情景Ⅲ、Ⅳ和谐程度明显优于情景Ⅰ、Ⅱ,达到和谐等级。情景Ⅲ、Ⅳ通过继续调整政策,将地表水开发利用率控制在阈值75.0%以内,到2030年地表水开发利用率分别为70.7%、68.3%,比2015年分别降低了60.57%、62.97%,使得黑河流域退出地表水过度开发区。为确保黑河流域未来水资源、社会经济、生态环境三者协调、共同发展,针对该流域地表水资源开发利用率较高的现状,推荐在保持规划GDP增速不变的情况下,基于最严格水资源管理制度的核心——“三条红线”,通过调整农作物种植结构、大力发展高效节水灌溉面积、加大工业节水力度等措施,优化水资源配置,大幅度降低农业耗水量,有效降低地表水利用率,可实现水资源和水生态系统良性循环,确保流域生态健康可持续发展。建立的和谐性评价数学模型虽处于探索阶段中,但对水资源与社会经济、生态环境如何协调发展进行了定量描述,为治理流域提供数据支撑,为黑河流域未来发展提供参考依据。Regarding the Heihe River Basin as the research object, based on the harmony theory and sustainable development theory, aiming at coordinating the ecological construction, economic and social development and optimizing the allocation of water and soil resources, the harmony evaluation index system of the“water economy ecology” system in the surface water overexploitation zone is established, and the different degrees of harmony are divided into five levels by using the linear membership method. According to the coordinated development goal of “water economy ecology” in the Heihe River Basin and combined with the future planning, 14 evaluation indexes that can reflect the current situation of water resources, the degree of development and utilization of surface water, agricultural irrigation, the level of economic and social development and the status of ecological environment are determined, so as to provide a basis for the harmony evaluation of the basin.The comprehensive index evaluation method is used to calculate the comprehensive harmony degree of the system under different scenarios in different level years in the Heihe River Basin. The calculation results show that although the overall harmony degree shows an upward trend under different scenarios, the harmony degree is lower than 0.4 in 2020, which can not reach the general harmony. In 2030, the harmony degree of scenarios Ⅰ and Ⅱ will be less than 0.6, while the harmony degree of scenarios Ⅲ and Ⅳ will be more than than 0.6. The harmony degree of scenarios Ⅲ and Ⅳ is significantly better than that of scenarios Ⅰ and Ⅱ, reaching the harmony level. In scenarios Ⅲ and Ⅳ, the development and utilization rate of surface water will be controlled within the threshold of 75.0% by continuing to adjust policies. By 2030, the development and utilization rate of surface water will be 70.7% and 68.3% respectively, 60.57% and 62.97% lower than that in 2015, making the Heihe River Basin withdraw from the surface water over development zone.

关 键 词：黑河流域 和谐论 地表水过度开发区 水-经济-生态 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]