基于压力-状态-响应模型的新疆水资源脆弱性评价  

Vulnerability assessment of water resources based on pressure-state-response model in Xinjiang

作　　者：范玲 王会肖[1] 刘昌明[2] 隋官航 FAN Ling;WANG Huixiao;LIU Changming;SUI Guanhang(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第6期1052-1064,共13页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：中国科学院特别专项“新疆可持续发展研究”。

摘　　要：鉴于脆弱性要素(暴露度、敏感性和适应性)与压力-状态-响应(pressure-state-response,PSR)模型结构有很好的对应关系,基于PSR模型开展新疆维吾尔自治区2010—2019年的水资源脆弱性评价。筛选人均用水量等25个评价指标,构建目标层-准则层-指标层评价体系并利用熵权法计算指标权重;将水资源脆弱性划分为不脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、重度脆弱和极脆弱5级,利用集对分析法和置信度准则计算得到2010—2019年的水资源脆弱性水平;将指标层和准则层脆弱性与系统综合脆弱性进行对比,分析各指标与准则层脆弱性水平和变化趋势与系统脆弱性的关系,探究影响水资源系统脆弱性的主要原因,成果可为新疆水资源管理提供参考。Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in the world.Since Shiyafeng pointed out in 2003 that the climate in Xinjiang had changed from"warm-dry"to"warm-wet",many scholars researched climate change in Xinjiang.However,most of these studies mainly focused on the trend of climate change and the impact on runoff,vegetation,glaciers,etc.,and rarely combined the environmental change with the social economy.The annual average precipitation in Xinjiang is about 153 mm,and the characteristics of oasis economy and irrigation agriculture make its water resources closely linked with regional development.A comprehensive method for water resources vulnerability is used to evaluate the water resources situation in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2019.The vulnerability of water resources can comprehensively indicate the adverse effects of climate change and human activities on water resources system and the measures taken by human society to maintain the balance of water system.The evaluation index system,which included a target layer,criterion layer,and index layer was established by this model and 25 indexes were selected because the causal relationship between water resources vulnerability elements(exposure,sensitivity,adaptability)and human activities can be accurately expressed with the pressure-state-response model.The vulnerability of water resources was divided into five grades,including nonvulnerability,slight vulnerability,moderate vulnerability,severe vulnerability,and extreme vulnerability.After gaining the indexes’data,the vulnerability standards of each index were obtained through the equal distance dispersion method,and the index weight was calculated by the entropy weight method.The vulnerability level of water resources in Xinjiang was gained by the set pair analysis,which could deal with the certainty and uncertainty within and between systems,and had been well applied in the field of water resources.The results showed that Xinjiang was severely vulnerable in 2010 and 201

关 键 词：水资源脆弱性 PSR模型 评价指标体系 熵权法 集对分析法 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]