气候变化背景下滇中引水工程水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇分析  

Synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of high-low precipitation between the water source and water receiving area in the Water Transfer Project in Central Yunnan under climate change

作　　者：何静 吕爱锋[2,3] 张文翔 HE Jing;LYU Aifeng;ZHANG Wenxiang(Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographic Processes and Environment Change,Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省高原地理过程与环境变化重点实验室,云南师范大学地理学部,昆明650500 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第6期1097-1108,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671026)。

摘　　要：基于历史实测降水数据与全球气候模型预估数据,使用Morlet小波方法分析滇中引水工程水源区与受水区降水序列的周期变化和未来的降水趋势。同时,采用Copula函数计算历史时期(1960—2021年)与未来时期(2022—2100年)水源区与受水区降水丰枯异步或丰枯同步的概率。结果表明:1960—2021年降水序列存在26~39 a、18~25 a、4~7 a的3类时间尺度的周期变化,2022—2100年降水序列存在38~55 a、18~30 a、5~12 a的3类时间尺度的周期变化,降水量呈现“多—少—多”的循环交替,预计未来10~20 a将持续处于降水较多的时期;过去62 a,水源区和受水区降水丰枯异步频率36.4%,同期丰水年频率为25.3%,同期枯水年频率小于30%,水源区和受水区具有水量互补的引水条件,两区域之间存在着水量补偿特征;与历史丰枯遭遇对比,未来降水量丰枯同步频率均呈现减小的趋势,丰枯异步呈现增加的趋势,同枯和源枯受丰的频率减少,未来有利于调水的降水丰枯组合概率平均增加3.75%;在近、中、远期预估中,从SSP1-2.6情景过渡到SSP5-8.5情景,SSP5-8.5情景下降水量丰枯异步频率比SSP1-2.6情景大,说明水源区与受水区的降水区域差异变大,降水时空差异更加显著。通过对滇中引水工程水源区与受水区降水量丰枯遭遇的综合分析、定量评估和模拟预测,为滇中引水工程水资源调度协同一体化提供数据支撑及参考依据。The analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of high-low precipitation between the water source and water receiving area is an important basis for regulation of water resources project and rational water resources allocation. The inter-annual precipitation variation cycles and trends were analyzed by Morlet wavelet analysis of water source and receiving area of the Water Transfer Project in Central Yunnan(WTPCY) from1960 to 2021. A Copula function was used to construct a joint distribution model of precipitation between the water source and the receiving area of WTPCY based on the historical measured and the shared socio-economic path(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) of the International Coupled Model Comparison Program Phase 6(CMIP 6) precipitation data from 2022 to 2100. The probability of asynchronous or synchronous precipitation was calculated in the two regions. The results show that:(1) annual precipitation in the water source area of the WTPCY was larger than that in the receiving area, the inter-annual variation of precipitation was relatively small and the intra-annual distribution was more uniform than that in the receiving area. The precipitation sequence from 1960 to 2021 had periodic changes on three time scales of 26 ~39 a, 18~25 a and 4~7 a, respectively, and the precipitation sequence from 2022to 2100 has periodic changes on three time scales of 38~55 a, 18~30 a and 5~12 a. The precipitation showed a cycle of "more-less-more" alternately. It is expected that the next 10~20 a will continue to be a period of high precipitation.(2) In the past 62 years, the precipitation asynchronous encounter probability between the water source area and the water receiving area was 36.4% and the precipitation synchronous encounter probability of high precipitation years was 25.3%. The precipitation synchronous encounter probability of low precipitation years was less than 30%, and the WTPCY have complementary water transfer conditions.(3) Compared with the baseline, the probability of precipitation synchron

关 键 词：滇中引水工程 Copula 丰枯遭遇 CMIP 6 小波分析 

分 类 号：TV67[水利工程—水利水电工程]