降水预报产品在不同水文气象分区中小流域的适应性评估  

Assessment of precipitation forecasting product’s adaptability in small and medium-sized basins in different hydrometeorological regions

作　　者：韦经豪 黄迎春 姚成[1] WEI Jinghao;HUANG Yingchun;YAO Cheng(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;College of Civil Engineering,Fuzhou university,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210024 [2]福州大学土木工程学院,福州350108

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第6期1208-1219,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909059,51979070);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20190492)。

摘　　要：以位于不同水文气象分区的屯溪流域和绥德流域为研究对象,选取TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Garnd Global Ensemble)数据集中NCEP(National Centersfor Environmental Prediction)、ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)、CMA(China Meteorological Administration)3种预报产品的2010—2015年控制预报数据,基于分位数映射法中的QUANT(non-parametric quantile mapping using empirical quantiles)法和RQUANT(non-parametric quantile mapping using robust empirical quantiles)法进行预报降雨修正,并采用多分类预报检验、连续型预报检验和概率型预报检验等方法,对不同水文气象分区、不同预报产品和不同修正方法进行比较与适用性分析;同时,以屯溪流域实测降雨为例,通过增加噪声项对降雨重采样,基于新安江模型分析降雨不确定性对水文模拟结果的影响。结果表明:在研究流域,所选的预报产品对无雨和小雨期的预报精度都较高,但随着降雨量的增加,各产品的预报能力均出现较为明显的下降。多分类和连续型检验表明绥德流域的降雨预报效果更佳,NCEP和ECMWF在研究流域的整体预报精度较高,CMA的整体预报精度在研究流域略低于其他产品。各产品在修正后大部分检验指标预报精度提高,其中:ECMWF在绥德流域修正后预报精度最高,对两种修正方法都有很好的适用性;在屯溪流域,NCEP和ECMWF在不同修正方法后各指标预报精度各有高低,CMA在修正后仅在大雨量级的TS评分预报精度高于其他产品。降雨的不确定性会对水文模拟产生消极影响,并导致参数的不确定性和水文模拟精度的下降。Rainfall data is one of the main factors that can affect the accuracy of flood simulation in small and medium rivers,and rainfall forecasting is the most direct means of extending the forecast period.At present,there are many precipitation forecast product evaluations and post-processing methods,but the research on the applicability evaluation,accuracy improvement,and forecast of each product is still insufficient in different hydrometeorological subregions.Through the detailed evaluation after applying different correction methods,the numerical forecast products and suitable rainfall correction methods are sought for small and medium basins in different hydrometeorological regions.This research aimed to provide a reliable basis for improving the flood forecasting accuracy and forecast period of medium and small rivers.This research took Tunxi and Suide basins and selected the 2010 to 2015 control forecast data of three products(NCEP,ECMWF,and CMA).The QUANT method and the RQUANT method were used for forecasting rainfall correction,and the multi-classification forecast test,continuous forecast test,and probabilistic forecast test methods were used to compare and analyze the applicability of different forecast products and different correction methods.Taking the measured rainfall in the Tunxi basin as an example,the rainfall was resampled by adding a noise term,and the influence of rainfall uncertainty on the hydrological simulation results was analyzed based on the Xin’anjiang model.The results showed that the selected forecast products had high forecast accuracy for no-rain and light-rain periods.With the increase in rainfall,the forecast ability of each product decreased significantly.The test showed that the rainfall forecast effect in the Suide basin was better,and the overall forecasting accuracy of NCEP and ECMWF was well in the study basin.The forecast accuracy of CMA is slightly worse than that of other products.The prediction accuracy of most of the inspection indicators for each product was improved a

关 键 词：TIGGE 降雨评估 分位数映射法 流域对比 降雨不确定性 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]