气候变化对我国水资源和重大水利工程影响研究进展  

Progress in Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Water Resources and Major Water Conservancy Projects

作　　者：秦鹏程[1] 刘敏[1] 夏智宏[1] 刘绿柳[2] Qin Pengcheng;Liu Min;Xia Zhihong;Liu Lüliu(Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2022年第6期7-15,共9页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局软科学研究重大项目(2022ZDAXM03);国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0196000,2018YFC1508000)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化正在改变地球水循环过程,导致地表水资源总量和时空分布格局的改变,从而对人类社会的水资源开发、利用和管理造成深刻影响。文中综述了国内外气候变化对水资源和水利工程影响研究方面的最新进展和认知,分析了当前研究的不足,指出未来需在极端水文事件及其影响、评估模型及流程规范的建立、针对性适应气候变化的应对策略等方面深化研究,以期为推进气候变化对我国水资源和水利工程影响评估及适应气候变化的对策研究提供参考。Climate change is altering the global water cycle,leading to variation in the total amount as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources.This can exert significant impact on the development,utilization and management of water resources.We summarized the recent progress and understanding of the impacts of climate change on water resources and water conservancy projects in China and around the globe.We also identified the deficiencies of the current research and pointed out the future research directions.It is concluded that further studies should be conducted in assessing changes in hydrological extremes and their impacts,developing models,tools and technical guidelines for impact study,and identifying strategies to adapt to future climate change.It is expected to provide reference for promoting the studies on assessing climate change impacts on water resources and water conservancy projects as well as on the identification of coping strategies.

关 键 词：气候变化 水循环与水资源 水文模型 水利工程 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]