热带气旋风场动力释用技术的检验与评估  

Test and Evaluation of Dynamic Interpretation Technology for Tropical Cyclone Wind Field

作　　者：周冠博 钱奇峰 胡海川 黄永杰[3] 崔晓鹏[3,4] 陈有龙 Zhou Guanbo;Qian Qifeng;Hu Haichuan;Huang Yongjie;Cui Xiaopeng;Chen Youlong(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological DisasterPrevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Hainan 570203;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,ChineseAcademy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;MeteorologicalInformation Center of Hainan Province,Hainan 570203)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南570203 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [5]海南省气象信息中心,海南570203

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2022年第6期48-54,共7页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1501604);海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金项目(SCSF202201);国家自然科学面上项目(41875056,42075013);广东省重点领域研发计划重点专项项目(2019B111101002);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41405049)。

摘　　要：我国是受热带气旋,尤其是登陆热带气旋影响最为严重的国家之一,热带气旋造成的大风是主要的气象致灾因子和业务预报的主要对象,而目前数值预报是热带气旋风场预报的重要客观参考产品。当数值预报的热带气旋路径与强度等较主观预报出现较大偏差时,需要对数值模式预报的风场及时做出修正,而业务中对风场数值预报产品缺乏合理有效的修正手段,使得风场数值预报产品的可用性显著降低。本文采用“热带气旋风场动力释用技术”建立了台风精细化大风客观预报系统,并开展了主、客观的台风个例风场检验以及2020年的台风风场检验。检验评估表明:基于“热带气旋风场动力释用技术”的台风精细化大风客观预报系统对热带气旋风场数值预报产品表现出良好的释用效果,提高了预报员对相关数值预报产品的理解和应用水平,提升了风场预报的精细化程度,为气象预报和决策服务提供了重要参考和依据。China is one of the countries that are most seriously affected by tropical cyclones,especially landfall tropical cyclones.The high winds caused by tropical cyclones are the main meteorological disaster-causing factors and the main object of operational forecasting,and the current numerical forecast is an important objective reference product for tropical cyclone wind field forecasting.When the path and intensity of the tropical cyclones forecasted by the numerical model deviate significantly from the subjective forecast,the wind field forecasted by the numerical model needs to be corrected in time.However,due to the lack of reasonable and effective correction means for the operational numerical wind field forecast products,the usability of the products has been reduced significantly.In this paper,the“dynamic interpretation technology for tropical cyclone wind field”is adopted in the establishment of an objective forecast system for the refined forecast of TC wind,and the objective and subjective typhoon wind field tests are carried out,as well as the typhoon wind field tests for 2020.The test and evaluation show that the refined objective typhoon forecast system based on the“dynamic interpretation technology for tropical cyclone wind field”has exhibited good interpretation of the tropical cyclone wind field numerical forecast products.The system has also improved the forecasters’understanding and application level of the relevant numerical forecast products and therefore has enhanced the refinement degree of wind field forecast.It can provide important reference and basis for meteorological forecast and decisionmaking services.

关 键 词：热带气旋风场 动力释用技术 预报检验与评估 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]