未来气候情景下河南烤烟潜在种植分布气候适宜性分析  

Analysis of Potential Cultivation of Flue-Cured Tobacco in Henan under Future Climate Scenarios

作　　者：刘晓迎 吴璐[2] Liu Xiaoying;Wu Lu(Henan Service Center of Meteorological Science and Technology,Zhengzhou 450003;Henan Climate Centre,Zhengzhou 450003)

机构地区：[1]河南省气象服务中心,郑州450003 [2]河南省气候中心,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2022年第6期55-63,共9页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201524)。

摘　　要：气候变化对作物种植格局改变的影响正受到广泛关注。基于河南烤烟种植地理分布信息,利用最大熵模型和Arc GIS空间分析技术,从生育期尺度筛选出了8个影响烤烟潜在种植分布的主导气候因子(累积贡献率超过85%),即伸根期≥10℃活动积温、伸根期降雨量、大田期降雨量、旺长期降雨量、成熟期≥10℃活动积温、大田期相对湿度、成熟期日较差和旺长期≥10℃活动积温,构建了河南烤烟种植分布-气候关系模型,对河南省烤烟不同种植分布区的气候特征、1961—2010年以及未来气候变化情景下2050s和2070s烤烟潜在种植分布年代际变化规律进行了分析。结果表明,最大熵模型适于模拟河南烤烟的潜在种植分布,基于最大熵模型构建的河南烤烟潜在种植分布与气候因子关系模型的准确性达到“好”的标准(AUC值为0.821)。1981—2010年河南烤烟潜在可种植区占全省面积的57.7%,大于当前烤烟的种植范围。年代际变化显示,20世纪70年代后,河南烤烟潜在可种植区总体呈增加趋势,表明河南烤烟生产还有较大的发展空间。相对于基准时段,在未来气候情景下,河南烤烟潜在可种植区面积呈增加趋势,两种情景,以RCP4.5情景影响较大。未来气候变化有利于河南烤烟种植区扩大。The impact of climate change on crop pattern changes is attracting widespread attention.Based on the geographical distribution information of flue-cured tobacco planting in Henan Province,the maximum entropy model and Arc GIS spatial analysis technology are used to screen out eight leading climate factors(cumulative contribution rate of more than 85%)affecting the potential planting distribution of flue-cured tobacco from the growth period scale.The factors are the active accumulated temperature at root extension stage≥10℃,rainfall at root extension stage,rainfall at field stage,rainfall during growing period,active accumulated temperature at maturity stage≥10℃,relative humidity at field stage,daily range at maturity stage and active accumulated temperature at growing period≥10℃.The relationship model between planting distribution and climate of fluecured tobacco in Henan Province is established accordingly.The climatic characteristics of different planting distribution areas of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province,the interdecadal variation during 1961-2010 and the interdecadal variation of potential planting distribution in 2050s and 2070s under climate change scenarios are analyzed.The results show that the maximum entropy model is suitable for simulating the potential planting distribution of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province,and that the accuracy of the relationship model reaches the standard of“good”(AUC value was 0.821).From 1981 to 2010,the potential growing area of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province accounted for 57.7%of the total area,which was larger than the current growing area.The decadal change shows that the potential growing area of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province has been increasing since 1970s,which indicates that there is still a large development space for flue-cured tobacco production in Henan Province.In the future climate scenario in Henan Province,the potential planting area of flue-cured tobacco will also increase and will be significantly affected by the RCP4.5

关 键 词：气候变化 烤烟 最大熵模型 潜在种植分布 气候适宜性 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业] S162.54[农业科学—作物学]