基于偏差分析的风力预报订正释用技术  

Correction and Interpretation Technology for Wind Speed Forecast Based on Deviation Analysis

作　　者：於敏佳 刘菡 李晓丽 胡潇杰 吴姗姗 徐逸雯 Yu Minjia;Liu Han;Li Xiaoli;Hu Xiaojie;Wu Shanshan;Xu Yiwen(Zhoushan Meteorological Bureau,Zhoushan 316000)

机构地区：[1]舟山市气象局,舟山316000

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2022年第6期97-103,120,共8页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象局科技计划项目(2021YB29);舟山市科技计划项目(2021C31028)。

摘　　要：本文利用浙江舟山嵊泗、定海、普陀、岱山四个站点的10 m风实况资料,深入分析2019—2020年的欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)10 m风格点预报产品偏差,并构建了订正模型,使用2021年的数据对订正模型进行独立检验,得到如下结论:①站点0~33 h逐3 h的预报实况误差绝对值较为稳定。②站点前后时次平均风预报实况误差,存在一元线性关系,且系数稳定。③站点平均风极大风关系与地形遮蔽、风力大小、下垫面等有关,一元二次模型能更精确地反映两者关系。④指标站平均风预报实况绝对误差分别精减至1.16 m/s、0.86 m/s、0.94 m/s、0.94 m/s,改进百分比分别为12%、62%、17%、10%,极大风平均绝对误差分别为2.12 m/s、2.58 m/s、2.69 m/s、2.86 m/s。总体上应用成效较好,可应用于实际业务。Based on the 10 m wind data of Shengsi,Dinghai,Putuo and Daishan stations of Zhoushan,Zhejiang Province,this paper analyzes the EC(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)10 m wind forecast product deviation of 2019-2020.The revised model is constructed accordingly,and the data of 2021 are used to independently test the model.The research results show that:①the absolute values of the actual every 3-h forecast errors at the stations from 0 to 33 hours are relatively stable.②The errors of mean wind forecast at different times have a univariate linear relationship with stable coefficient.③The relationship between the mean and extreme wind at the stations is associated the terrain shielding,wind force and underlying surface.The unitary quadratic model can reflect the relationship more accurately.④The average absolute errors of mean wind at the index stations are reduced to 1.16 m/s,0.86 m/s,0.94 m/s and 0.94 m/s respectively;the improvement percentage are 12%,62%,17%and 10%,respectively;and the average absolute errors of extreme wind are 2.12 m/s,2.58 m/s,2.69 m/s and 2.86 m/s respectively.In general,the application effect of the correction and interpretation technology is satisfactory and can be applied to operational wind speed forecast.

关 键 词：偏差分析 平均风订正 平均风极大风关系 EC模式 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]