基于信息熵的山东省货运结构演变及动因分析  

Evolution and Motivation of Freight Transport Structure in Shandong Province Based on Information Entropy

作　　者：张汝华 郭森垚 施庆利 ZHANG Ruhua;GUO Senyao;SHI Qingli(School of Qilu Transportation,Shandong University,Ji nan 250061,Shandong,China;Shandong Provincial Communications Plannning and Design Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Ji nan 250031,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学齐鲁交通学院,山东济南250061 [2]山东省交通规划设计院集团有限公司,山东济南250031

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第12期33-40,共8页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：山东省交通科学技术项目(2020B75)。

摘　　要：货运结构指一定时期及范围内,货运总量中各种货运量的占比,研究货运结构影响因素能够帮助区域综合交通发展明确优势和短板,从而因地制宜,探寻区域最优货运结构。使用信息熵描述货运结构能够将货运结构定量化,使用推拉效应模型则能对运输结构的具体影响因素进行研究。以山东省为例,使用信息熵对山东省综合交通货运结构进行描述,探究其演变规律,使用灰色关联分析法探寻货运结构的系统影响因素,结合推拉效应模型分析单一运输方式对货运结构的影响。研究表明:人口因素对货运结构演变的影响是最大的,主要体现在对于水运货运量的影响上。研究货运结构演变动因能够从自身角度分析区域货运合理规模与结构,实现运输效益最大化。The freight structure refers to the proportion of various freight volumes in the total freight volume within a certain period and scope. Studying the influencing factors of freight structure can help the regional integrated transportation development to clarify its advantages and disadvantages, so as to adjust measures to local conditions and explore the optimal freight structure of the region. Information entropy was used to describe the freight structure, which could quantify the freight structure. The specific influencing factors of transportation structure could be studied by using push-pull effect model. Taking Shandong Province as an example, the information entropy was used to describe the comprehensive transportation and freight transport structure of Shandong Province and explore its evolution law. The gray correlation analysis method was used to explore the system influencing factors of the freight transport structure. Combined with the push-pull effect model, the impact of a single transportation mode on the freight structure was analyzed. The research indicates that the demographic factor has the greatest impact on the evolution of freight transport structure, which is mainly reflected in the impact on water freight volume. Studying the evolution and motivation of freight transport structure can analyze the reasonable scale and structure of regional freight transport from its own perspective, so as to maximize transport benefits.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 综合交通 货运结构 信息熵 灰色关联分析 推拉效应模型 

分 类 号：U116.1[交通运输工程]