RCEP对全球及中国区域电子产业发展的影响分析——基于全球与中国区域(含深圳)的CGE模型系统  

Analysis of the Impact of RCEP on the Development of Electronics Industry in Global and Chinese Regions——Based on Global and Chinese Regional (including Shenzhen) CGE Model System

作　　者：董婉璐 李慧娟 杨军[4] DONG Wanlu;LI Huijuan;YANG Jun(Institute of Quantitative&Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Laboratory of China's Economic and Social Development&Smart Governance,Beijing 100732,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forest University,Beijing 100084,China;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [2]中国经济社会发展与智能治理实验室,北京100732 [3]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [4]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2023年第1期119-133,共15页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“全球价值链与中国产业升级研究”(71733002);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目“重大冲击和变化对中国-全球农业影响模拟模型的研究和开发”(71761147004);国家自然科学基金青年项目“中美先进制造业价值链风险和对策研究——基于全球可计算一般均衡模型的分析”(72103203);中国社会科学院青年科研启动项目“RCEP对区域经济和产业的影响分析”(2021)。

摘　　要：以电子产业作为研究重点,采用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析方法,运用全球-区域CGE模型链接的方法,将包含价值链分析框架的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型——GTAP-GVC模型与中国多区域可计算一般均衡模型——TERM模型相链接,从国家和区域两个层面,综合测算RCEP对中国、RCEP其他成员国家以及我国深圳地区和国内其他地区的经济影响,尤其侧重中国电子产业的发展以及在国内区域间的溢出效应,并据此提出政策建议。研究显示,RCEP的建成将显著提高成员国的经济水平和社会福利,也将促使中国各个地区经济和贸易的增长;在电子产业上,RCEP成员国之间价值链活动尤其是复杂价值链活动更为活跃,国内各区域在电子产业的产业链内部的流通与合作也显著增长。Taking the electronic industry as the key research point, using the computable general equilibrium(CGE) model analysis method and the global-region CGE model linking method, the global multi-regional computable general equilibrium model(GTAP-GVC model), which includes the value chain analysis framework, is linked with the computable general equilibrium model(TERM model) of China’s multi regions. From both national and regional levels, a comprehensive calculation of RCEP’s impact is calculated on China, other member countries of RCEP, Shenzhen and other regions of China, with particular emphasis on the development of China’s electronic industries and spillover effects between domestic regions, and based on this, the policy recommendations are put forward accordingly. The research shows that the establishment of RCEP will significantly improve the economic level and social welfare of member countries and will also promote the economic and trade growth of all regions in China;In the electronic industry, the value chain activities among the RCEP member countries, especially the complex value chain activities, are more active, and the circulation and cooperation within the electronic industry chain of various regions in China are also growing significantly.

关 键 词：RCEP CGE模型 全球价值链 区域影响 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]