模拟中国四级行政尺度下耕地位移对粮食生产潜力的影响  

Modelling the impacts of cropland displacement on potential cereal production with four levels of China's administrative boundaries

作　　者：杨柏寒 盛思雨 柯新利 代先华 卢新海 YANG Bohan;SHENG Siyu;KE Xinli;DAI Xianhua;LU Xinhai(College of Public Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;College of Public Administration,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]College of Public Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China [2]College of Public Administration,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China [3]College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2023年第1期18-36,共19页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42101280;Humanities and Social Science Fund of the Ministry of Education,No.20YJC630182,No.18YJA790018。

摘　　要：Cropland displacement, as an important characteristic of cropland change, places more emphasis on changes in spatial location than on quantity. The effects of cropland displacement on global and regional food production are of general concern in the context of urban expansion. Few studies have explored scale-effects, however, where cropland is displaced not only within, but also outside, the administrative boundary of a certain region. This study used a spatially explicit model(LANDSCAPE) to simulate the potential cropland displacement caused by urban land expansion from 2020 to 2040 at four scales of the Chinese administration system(national, provincial, municipal, and county levels). The corresponding changes in potential cereal production were then assessed by combining cereal productivity data. The results show that 4700 km^(2) of cropland will be occupied by urban expansion by 2040, and the same amount of cropland will be supplemented by forest, grassland, wetland, and unused land. The potential loss of cropland will result in the loss of 3.838×10^(6) tons of cereal production, and the additional cropland will bring 3.546×10^(6) tons, 3.831×10^(6) tons, 3.836×10^(6) tons, and 3.528×10^(6) tons of potential cereal production in SN(national scale), SP(provincial scale), SM(municipal scale), and SC(county scale), respectively. Both SN and SC are observed to make a huge difference in cereal productivity between the lost and the supplemented cropland. We suggest that China should focus on the spatial allocation of cropland during large-scale displacement, especially at the national level.

关 键 词：cropland displacement potential cereal production LANDSCAPE model scale-effects food security 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]