近五十年中国干旱半干旱区正在变湿吗?  

Have China's drylands become wetting in the past 50 years?

作　　者：章禹 张扬建 程亮 丛楠 郑周涛 黄珂 张建双 朱艺璇 高洁 孙毅寒 ZHANG Yu;ZHANG Yangjian;CHENG Liang;CONG Nan;ZHENG Zhoutao;HUANG Ke;ZHANG Jianshuang;ZHU Yixuan;GAO Jie;SUN Yihan(Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;College of Life Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science,Beijing 100101,China;Beijing Applied Atmospheric Institute,Beijing 100029,China;Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,University of Copenhagen,Copenhagen 1350,Denmark)

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China [2]College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [3]College of Life Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [4]CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science,Beijing 100101,China [5]Beijing Applied Atmospheric Institute,Beijing 100029,China [6]Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,University of Copenhagen,Copenhagen 1350,Denmark

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2023年第1期99-120,共22页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：The Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41991234;The National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,No.41725003。

摘　　要：Recently, whether drylands of Northwest China(NW) have become wetting has been attracting surging attentions. By comparing the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices(SPEI) derived from two different potential evapotranspiration estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite algorithm(SPEI_th) and the Penman-Monteith equation(SPEI_pm), we try to resolve the controversy. The analysis indicated that air temperature has been warming significantly at a rate of 0.4℃ decade^(-1) in the last five decades and the more arid areas are more prone to becoming warmer. Annual precipitation of the entire study area increased insignificantly by 3.6 mm decade^(-1) from 1970 to 2019 but NW presented significantly increasing trends. Further, the SPEI_th and SPEI_pm demonstrated similar wetting-drying-wetting trends(three phases) in China’s drylands during 1970–2019. The common periodical signals in the middle phase were identified both by SPEI_th and SPEI_pm wavelet analysis. Analysis with different temporal intervals can lead to divergent or even opposite results. The attribution analysis revealed that precipitation is the main climatic factor driving the drought trend transition. This study hints that the wetting trend’s direction and magnitude hinge on the targeted temporal periods and regions.

关 键 词：China DRYLANDS drying or wetting trend Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) DROUGHT ARIDITY 

分 类 号：S728.2[农业科学—林木遗传育种]