我国宏观税负倒U型演变主导因素的变迁  

The Change of the Dominant Factors of the Inverted U-shaped Evolution of China’s Macro Tax Burden

作　　者：崔月彤 韩秀兰[1] CUI Yuetong;HAN Xiulan(School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《经济与管理》2023年第1期83-92,共10页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY175)。

摘　　要：基于我国减税降费背景下宏观税负呈现倒U型特征,将研究期分为1994—2012年和2012—2020年两个阶段,构建贝叶斯LASSO模型实证分析两个阶段宏观税负主导因素的变化。结果发现:我国宏观税负经济主导因素发生了根本性转变,由经济增长驱动转为产业结构引领,经济因素对东部地区宏观税负的拉动作用更为强劲。税收征管因素成为影响宏观税负的最重要因素,影响程度呈现东、中、西部地区依次递减的趋势。在营改增政策和减税政策效应的持续释放下,营业税对宏观税负的负向效应逐渐缩小,增值税对宏观税负的负向调控作用开始凸显,不同区域税收结构因素对宏观税负的影响程度不同。我国应进一步发挥第三产业的税收增长潜力,加强税收征管,聚焦制度性减税和财政支出结构性改革,保持宏观税负的总体稳定,同时注重区域差异性,促进区域经济和税收协调发展。Based on the inverted U-shaped characteristics of China’s macro tax burden under the background of tax cuts and fee reductions,the research period is divided into two stages:1994-2012 and 2012-2020.By constructing the Bayesian LASSO model,this paper empirically analyzes the changes in the dominant factors of the macro tax burden in two stages.The results show that:the dominant factors of the national macro tax burden economy have undergone a fundamental change from economic growth to industrial structure,and the economic factors have a stronger pulling effect on the macro tax burden in the eastern region.Tax collection and management factors have become the most important factors affecting the macro tax burden,and the degree of influence shows a decreasing trend in the eastern,central,and western regions.Under the continuous release of the effects of the policy of replacing business tax with value-added tax and the tax reduction policy,the negative effect of the business tax on the macro tax burden has gradually narrowed,and the negative regulation of the value-added tax on the macro tax burden has begun to highlight.The impact of tax structure factors on regional macro tax burden is different.Therefore,it is suggested that China should further develop the tax growth potential of the tertiary industry,strengthen tax collection and management,focus on institutional tax reduction and structural reform of fiscal expenditure,maintain the overall stability of the macro tax burden,pay attention to regional differences,and promote the coordinated development of regional economy and tax.

关 键 词：宏观税负 倒U型演变 主导因素 减税降费 贝叶斯LASSO模型 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]