中国与G20其他国家农产品贸易前景——基于随机前沿引力模型的研究  

Prospects of Agricultural Products Trade Between China and the Other G20 Member Countries:A Research Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：湛一曼 李旻晶[2] ZHAN Yi-man;LI Min-jing(School of Management,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430048,China;School of Economics,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430048,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学管理学院,武汉430048 [2]武汉轻工大学经济学院,武汉430048

出　　处：《唐山学院学报》2023年第1期69-78,共10页Journal of Tangshan University

摘　　要：文章通过随机前沿引力模型对中国与G20其他国家农产品贸易前景进行探索展望。首先通过引力模型对中国与19国在2011-2020年间的农产品贸易效率进行测度,在此基础上进一步得出贸易空间;接着计算各国农产品贸易竞争优势指数,并对农产品竞争力与贸易空间进行交叉分析,最终探索出中国与G20其他国家的贸易前景。通过全面分析可知,中国需要科学开拓贸易市场,发展优质贸易伙伴;充分发挥比较优势,采取进出口相结合的贸易方式;推动区域经济协作,加强基础设施建设;优化农产品供给结构,健全风险控制体系。This paper explores the prospect of agricultural products trade between China and the other G20 member countries with the stochastic frontier gravity model.Firstly,the trade efficiency between China and 19 countries during 2011-2020 is measured with gravity model,and on this basis,the trade space is further obtained;Then,the competitiveness indicator of agricultural products in each country is calculated,and the cross-analysis of the competitiveness and trade space is conducted.Finally,the trade prospects of 19 countries in China is explored.It is concluded through a thorough analysis that China needs to scientifically explore the trade market and develop high-quality trading partners,to give full play to comparative advantages and combine import and export trade,to promote regional economic cooperation and strengthen infrastructure construction,and to optimize the supply structure of agricultural products and improve the risk control system.

关 键 词：中国 G20农产品贸易 随机前沿引力模型 竞争优势指数 国际贸易前景 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F762[经济管理—产业经济]