中国对小岛屿国家的旅游贸易效率、潜力及影响因素  

China′s Tourism Trade Efficiency,Potential,and Influencing Factors to Small Island States

作　　者：王娟[1,2] 马红梅 Wang Juan;Ma Hongmei(College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Ocean Development Research Institute,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期1-11,共11页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“海上丝绸之路建设背景下我国与小型岛屿国家旅游合作研究”(20BJY199)。

摘　　要：以2006—2018年我国入境旅游的8个小岛屿国家数据为样本,运用时变随机前沿引力模型对中国对小岛屿国家的旅游贸易效率及贸易潜力进行实证分析。结果发现:(1)双方经济水平、人口规模正向促进中国对小岛屿国家的旅游贸易水平,地理距离在中国对小岛屿国家开展旅游贸易时影响不显著。(2)小岛屿国家的国际航空运输能力、突发事件与旅游贸易非效率正相关,小岛屿国家服务业就业人数占比、旅游外汇收入占比、中国对其直接投资存量以及两国之间的签证与旅游贸易非效率负相关。(3)中国对小岛屿国家的旅游贸易效率在逐渐提升,且潜力很大。因此,应该依托现有旅游贸易基础实行差异化合作策略、通过第三方合作等形式深化旅游领域合作、发展数字经济提高小岛屿国家旅游产业的信息化水平、提高投资过程中的社区参与度和民众获得感,进一步提升中国对小岛屿国家的旅游贸易效率和潜力。This paper analyzes the data of 8 small island destinations of China′s outbound tourism from 2006 to 2018 and uses the time-varying stochastic frontal gravity model to make an empirical analysis of the tourism trade efficiency and tourism trade potential between China and small island states.The research results showed that:(1)The level of economic development and population size of both sides can promote the tourism trade;geographical distance does not have a significant impact on China′s tourism trade with small island states.(2)The capacity of international air transport and the occurrence of incidents in small island states are positively correlated with tourism inefficiencies,while the proportion of employment population in the service sector,the proportion of foreign exchange earnings from tourism,the stock of China′s direct investment in small island states,and the current visa situation between the two countries are negatively correlated with the inefficiency of tourism trade.(3)There was a growing trend on the efficiency of China′s outbound tourism to small island countries,and the tourism business efficiency showed a clear downward trend.In order to further improve the tourism trade level with small island countries,we should rely on the existing tourism trade basis to implement differentiated cooperation strategies,deepen cooperation in the tourism field through third-party cooperation,develop a digital economy to improve the level of informatization of the tourism industry of small island countries,and improve community participation and public gain in the investment process.

关 键 词：旅游贸易 小岛屿国家 随机前沿引力模型 贸易效率与潜力 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F752.8[经济管理—产业经济]