2021年6月25—26日南充市暴雨过程成因分析  

Analysis on Cause of Rainstorm Process in Nanchong City from June 25 to 26, 2021

作　　者：钟启琴 张力 崔宗鸿 ZHONG Qiqin;ZHANG Li;CUI Zonghong(Severe Weather in Northeast Sichuan Key Laboratory of Nanchong City,Nanchong Sichuan 637000;Gaoping Meterological Bureau in Nanchong City,Sichuan Nanchong 637100)

机构地区：[1]川东北强天气研究南充市重点实验室,四川南充637000 [2]南充市高坪区气象局,四川南充637100

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2023年第1期145-150,共6页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对南充市2021年6月25—26日区域性暴雨天气过程,利用地面自动站、高空实况以及模式格点等资料进行暴雨成因分析,并对数值预报产品进行预报检验。结果表明:此次暴雨过程是因副热带高压缓慢西进、500 hPa低值系统维持在盆地、低层有辐合系统配合而产生的以稳定性降水为主的降水过程。850 hPa盆地中部到东北部西南低涡、700 hPa低空急流、切变线的维持为此次暴雨天气提供了较好的动力和水汽条件。在本次区域暴雨形成中热力作用不明显,但是由于具备其他条件,仍要考虑本地暴雨的预报。欧洲中心细网格风场预报对此次南充市东部的暴雨预报具有指示意义,西南区域模式也具有一定的参考性。In this paper, according to the regional rainstorm weather process in Nanchong City from June 25 to 26,2021, the data of ground automatic station, high-altitude reality and model grid points was used to analyze the causes of rainstorm, and the numerical prediction products were tested. The results showed that the rainstorm process was a precipitation process dominated by stable precipitation, which occurred under the condition that the subtropical high moved westward slowly, 500 hPa low pressure system maintained in the basin, and there was a convergence system in the lower layer. Maintenance of 850 hPa southwest vortex and 700 h Pa low-level jet and shear line provided good power and water vapor conditions for the rainstorm. The thermal effect was not obvious in the formation of rainstorm in this region.However, due to other conditions, the local rainstorm forecast should still be considered. The wind field forecast of the ECMWF numerical model had indicative significance to the rainstorm forecast in the eastern part of Nanchong City, and the SWC-WARMS model also had certain reference to the rainstorm forecast.

关 键 词：暴雨 成因分析 数值预报检验 四川南充 2021年6月25—26日 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]