1956—2021年疏勒河流域主要河流出山径流变化及成因分析  

Changes in runoff from major rivers and analysis of its causes in the Shule River Basin from 1956-2021

作　　者：王学良 陈仁升 刘俊峰 韩春坛 WANG Xueliang;CHEN Rensheng;LIU Junfeng;HAN Chuntan(Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Pingliang Hydrological Station of Gansu Province,Pingliang 744000,Gansu,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站,甘肃兰州730000 [2]甘肃省平凉水文站,甘肃平凉744000 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2022年第6期1782-1792,共11页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“雪面雨侵蚀积雪过程模拟实验研究”(42171145);甘肃省自然科学基金“祁连山流域中小河流洪水特征变化与预警预报方案研究”(21JR7RA043)资助。

摘　　要：基于1956—2021年疏勒河、石油河和党河出山口水文站的实测径流量和托勒气象站以及再分析气象数据,采用Sen’s slope估计法、Mann-Kendall检验法,分析了3条河流径流变化特征及其成因。结果表明:(1)1956—2021年3条河流出山径流量变化均为增加趋势,其中疏勒河和党河为显著性增加趋势,石油河为非显著性增加趋势。(2)3条河流突变年份分别在1998年、2007年和1982年,突变后径流量显著增加,疏勒河变化率为60%,石油河和党河大约为20%。(3)疏勒河和石油河径流量在2000s后为研究时段丰水期,而党河在1980s后缓慢增加并在2020s初出现历史丰水值。(4)受波动性降水增加和1986年后加速上升的气温所引起冰川加速消融等原因的共同影响,3条河流出山径流量的年平均和各季节流量均为增加态势。Based on the measured runoff from the hydrological stations of Shule River,Shiyou River,and Dang River from 1956 to 2021,as well as the meteorological station of Tuole and reanalyzed meteorological data,the characteristics of runoff changes of the three rivers and their causes were analyzed using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test.The results showed that the runoff changes of the three rivers showed an upward trend from 1956 to 2021,among which the Shule River and the Dang River showed significantly increasing trends,while the Shiyou River showed a non-significant increasing trend.The years of abrupt change for the three rivers were 1998,2007,and 1982,respectively.The runoff increased significantly after the abrupt change,in which the Shule River increased by 60%,while the Shiyou River and the Dang River increased by approximately 20%.Runoff from the Shule River and Shiyou River was abundant during the study period after the 2000s,while runoff from the Dang River increased slowly after the 1980s and showed a historical abundance value in the early 2020s.The combined effect of increased fluctuating precipitation and accelerated glacier melting due to accelerated temperature rise after 1986 resulted in an increasing trend of both average annual and seasonal runoff for these three rivers.

关 键 词：疏勒河流域 出山径流 变化 成因分析 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]