改革开放、消费波动与福利效应:新视角与新证据  

Reform and Opening-up, Consumption Volatility and Welfare Effect: New Perspective and New Evidence

作　　者：陈太明[1] Chen Taiming(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian,Liaoning 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《长沙理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期83-92,共10页Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology：Social Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403044);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173074);辽宁省教育厅高等学校基本科研项目(LJKR0431);辽宁省高等学校创新人才支持计划项目(WR2018019)。

摘　　要：采用双重差分法定量评估改革开放在促进中国居民消费波动趋缓和福利增加方面的政策效果,并实证检验改革开放通过何种机制促稳定和增福利。研究发现,改革开放显著降低了中国居民消费波动性,从而增加了中国居民的福利水平,相当于使人均消费永久性提高0.16个百分点。进一步研究发现,在1979年前后的中国居民福利收益增加总额中,改革开放贡献了近95%的份额。改革开放的政策效果主要通过收入稳定性增强、预期寿命延长和政府支出规模扩大三种渠道实现。文章创新性地从短期波动视角解读改革开放的政策效果,为进一步深化改革开放和推动经济高质量发展提供了有益的政策启示。The differences-in-differences(DID) method is used to quantitatively evaluate the policy effect of reform and opening up in promoting more slow consumption fluctuation and welfare increase of Chinese residents, and to empirically test the mechanism through which reform and opening up promotes stability and welfare increase. This paper finds that reform and opening-up policies has significantly reduced the volatility of Chinese residents’ consumption, increasing the welfare level of Chinese residents. The welfare gain of reform and opening-up policies means that per capita consumption has permanently increased 0.16 percent. The study further finds that the welfare gain of reform and opening-up policies contributes almost 95 percent of Chinese residents’ total welfare gain increase around 1979. The policy effect of reform and opening-up is mainly achieved through income stability enhancement, life expectancy extension and government expenditure scale expansion. However, this paper innovatively interprets the policy effect of reform and opening-up from the perspective of short-term fluctuation, and provides useful policy implications for further deepening reform and opening up and promoting high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：改革开放 消费波动 福利效应 居民消费 促稳定 增福利 政策效果 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]