基于时空相似与熵权修订相结合的雷电定量预警模型研究  

Quantitative Lightning Warning Model Based on Spatio-temporal Similarity and Entropy Weight Revision

作　　者：刘凤姣 王道平 刘艳清 唐瑶 薛明 薛德锋 LIU Fengjiao;WANG Daoping;LIU Yanqing;TANG Yao;XUE Ming;XUE Defeng(Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Hunan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Changsha 410007,China;Xiangxiang Meteorological Bureau,Xiangtan 411100,China;Jingzhou County Meteorological Bureau,Jingzhou 418400,China;Huaihua Meteorological Bureau,Huaihua 418000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象灾害防御技术中心,气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410007 [2]湘乡市气象局,湖南湘乡411400 [3]靖州县气象局,湖南靖州418400 [4]怀化市气象局,湖南怀化418000

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期18-22,29,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160211);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2006CB200303)。

摘　　要：为提高雷电预警的指示性,利用时空相似和熵权修订相结合的方法,采用天气系统分型选择历史相似个例,进行雷电的定点定量(级)预警研究。利用相似个例的雷电分布建立时、空预警模型;选取地面气温和热岛强度为因子对东台风雷电预警模型进行强度和落点的熵权修订。以东台风为例进行验证,结果表明:该方法有明确的预警等级边界,原预警常为一个等级,无等级差异;现预警等级与雷电风险等级成正比,提高了雷电等级预警的指示意义;过滤了零星雷电和弱雷电,避免了弱风险下的雷电预警,指导性强。采用时空相似和熵权修订相结合的方法可以实现雷电的定量(级)预警,且有明显效果。Based on the method of spatio-temporal similarity and entropy weight revision,the fixed-point quantitative(level I)lightning warning is studied by using weather system typing to select historical similar cases.Based on lightning distribution of similar cases,time and space warning models are established.The surface heat factor and entropy weight are selected to revise the early warning model.The results show that this method has a clear warning level boundary,and the original warning level is usually one level withoutany grade differences.The warning level is proportional to the lightning risk level to improve the indication significance of lightning warning level;sporadic lightning and weak lightning are filtered,which can avoid the weak risk of lightning warning,and of meaningful guidance.The quantitative(level)lightning warning can be realized by using the method of spatio-temporal similarity and entropy weight modification,and it has obvious effect.

关 键 词：天气系统 时空相似 熵权 台风 雷电灾害 等级划分 预警模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X915.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P446