医疗众筹项目要不要炒作?负面口碑传播视角下医疗众筹项目炒作行为研究  

Should Medical Crowdfunding Programs Be Hyped?A Study of the Hype of Medical Crowdfunding from the Perspective of Negative Word of Mouth Communication

作　　者：胡森 丁龙 胡斌[2] 肖娇妍 HU Sen;DING Long;HU Bin;XIAO Jiaoyan(School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;College of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京210044 [2]华中科技大学管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2023年第1期81-90,共10页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72001116,71971093);教育部人文社科项目(20YJC630041);江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(20GLC017);南京信息工程大学引进人才科研启动专项经费(2019r066)。

摘　　要：医疗众筹已经成为普通民众难以负担医疗费用时的重要筹款来源,但“罗尔事件”(即炒作行为)引起网民对医疗众筹的广泛质疑。鉴于负面口碑在罗尔事件舆论反转中的重要作用,基于贝叶斯学习机制建立了扩散仿真模型,模拟了网民基于正负口碑调整对医疗众筹项目看法的动态过程,研究了炒作行为及相关因素对筹款人收益的影响。研究发现:炒作行为能够给求助者带来短期收益,但很有可能降低其长期收益;炒作长期/短期收益受相关因素影响,如项目真实性、先验印象、易感性以及网络结构。具体而言,项目真实性和先验印象正向影响炒作短期收益而负向影响炒作长期收益;易感性负向影响短期收益,但对炒作长期收益的影响因网络结构不同而异。Medical crowdfunding has become an important fund-raising source when the ordinary people cannot afford the medical expenses. However, the “Luoer event”(i.e., hype behavior) makes medical crowdfunding widely questioned by netizens. In view of the important role of negative word-of-mouth in the reversal of public opinion in “Luoer event”, this paper establishes a diffusion simulation model based on the Bayesian learning mechanism, simulates the dynamic process of netizens’ views on medical crowdfundings based on positive and negative word-of-mouth, and studies the impact of speculation and related factors on the fund raiser’s income. It is found that hype can bring short-term benefits to the funding raiser, but it is likely to reduce his/her long-term benefits. The long-term or short-term benefits from hype are affected by relevant factors, such as the authenticity, prior impression, susceptibility, and network structure. Specifically, the authenticity and prior impression have a positive impact on the short-term benefits from hype, but a negative impact on the long-term benefits from hype. Susceptibility has a negative impact on short-term earnings, but its impact on long-term earnings varies with the network structure.

关 键 词：医疗众筹 创新扩散 贝叶斯学习机制 多主体建模 

分 类 号：N945.13[自然科学总论—系统科学] C94[经济管理]