新疆区域CRA40地面气温检验分析  

Temperature Error Test of CMA Global Atmospheric Reanalysis Data in Xinjiang

作　　者：张旭[1] 毛炜峄[2] 陈静 李淑娟[2] 姚俊强[2] ZHANG Xu;MAO Weiyi;CHEN Jing;LI Shujuan;YAO Junqiang(Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2022年第5期15-23,共9页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510501);国家自然科学基金重点项目(42030612);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01A121)。

摘　　要：将高空间分辨率的CRA40地面日平均气温插值到新疆区域105站,以105站实测气温为基准,用平均误差(ME)、均方根误差(RMSE)和相关系数(r)3项检验指标,对新疆区域_(CRA40)地面气温数据质量进行评估,与ERA5气温检验结果进行比较。结果表明:(1)1981—2020年,新疆区域105站CRA40日平均气温与测站实况之间的相关系数r_(_(CRA40))为0.973,通过0.001的显著性水平检验。新疆区域CRA40气温与实况比较,日平均气温的年平均值、年最大值和最小值分别相差0.12、0.02和1.94℃,日平均气温年最大、最小值出现日期完全一致。(2)逐年检验结果中,2004年之前ME_(CRA40)为负偏差,2005年之后为正偏差,无论是ME_(CRA40)和RMSE_(CRA40)还是R_(CRA40),都反映出2005—2020年新疆区域_(CRA40)气温数据质量有所改进,较前期更加接近ERA5。(3)逐月检验结果中,新疆区域ME_(CRA40)绝对值和RMSE_(CRA40)均在冬季最大。结合ME与RMSE指标,在3月和10—11月新疆区域CRA40气温数据质量略优于ERA5。(4)逐日检验结果中,新疆区域ME_(CRA40)的绝对值在1.0℃以内的日数占全年的80.8%,RMSE_(CRA40)<3.0℃的日数占72.3%。以RMSE为指标,新疆区域CRA40数据质量优于ERA5的日数有79 d,集中在3—4月和10—11月;以相关系数r为指标,新疆区域CRA40数据质量优于ERA5的日数有22 d,其中21 d集中在3月。(5)逐站检验结果中,新疆区域105站中有49站的ME_(CRA40)绝对值较小,38站的RMSE_(CRA40)较小,有51站的r_(_CRA40)较大。整体上ERA5气温数据质量略优于CRA40,但是依据不同指标,CRA40气温数据质量占优的测站分别占36.2%~48.6%。(6)在分海拔高度的次级区域检验结果中,在Ⅰ区海拔<1500 m的区域,ERA5气温数据质量整体占优;在Ⅱ区海拔1500~2000 m的山区,CRA40气温数据质量优于ERA5;在Ⅲ区海拔>2000 m的山区,CRA40气温数据质量略差,与ERA5十分接近。Based on the 105 national meteorological stations over Xinjiang during 1981-2020,the 2 meters temperature errors of(CRA40)data were analyzed by using the mean error(ME),root mean square error(RMSE)and correlation coefficient(r).The characteristics of spatio-temporal distribution of the errors show that the 40-year CRA40 reanalysis of the daily average temperature are significantly correlated with the observed station data,the corresponding correlation is 0.973,and passes the 0.001 significance test.The CRA40 reanalysis daily average temperature is consistent with the observed data,the annual average,maximum and minimum values of daily average temperature differ by 0.12,0.02 and 1.94℃,respectively,and the maximum and minimum daily average temperatures appear on the same date.The annual inspection results of ME_(CRA40),RMSE_(CRA40),and r_(CRA40)show that the quality of CRA40 temperature data in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2020 has improved,and it is closer to ERA5 than before 2005.Before 2004,ME_(CRA40)was negative,and after 2005,it was positive.The monthly ME_(CRA40)and RMSE_(CRA40)inspection results show that the maximum temperature error in Xinjiang appears in the winter.In March,October and November,the temperature data error of CRA40 is slightly better than that of ERA5.The daily inspection results show that the number of days with the absolute value of ME_(CRA40)within 1.0℃account for 80.8%of the year,and the number of days with RMSE_(CRA40)less than 3.0℃account for 72.3%of the year.Taking RMSE as an indicator,the data quality of CRA40 is better than that of ERA5 for 79 days,mainly in March-April and October-November.Using the correlation coefficient as an indicator,there are 22 days of CRA40 data quality better than ERA5,mainly in March.The results of the meteorological observation station-by-station inspection show that 49 of the 105 stations in Xinjiang have better ME_(CRA40),38 stations have better RMSE_(CRA40),and 51 stations have worse r_(CRA40).On the whole,the air temperature data quality of ERA5 is s

关 键 词：日平均气温 检验 CRA40 ERA5 新疆 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]