基于轨迹和气象数据的高速公路行车安全风险研究  

Highway Driving Safety Risk Research Based on Trajectory and Meteorological Data

作　　者：邵依然 侯剑锋 李心怡 朱丁涛 王伟力 SHAO YiRan;HOU Jianfeng;Li XinYi;ZHU Dingtao;WANG WeiLi

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]上海城投公路投资(集团)有限公司,上海200336 [3]京珠高速公路广珠段改扩建管理处,广东广州510000 [4]浙江交投高速公路建设管理有限公司,浙江杭州310024

出　　处：《上海公路》2022年第4期129-135,M0009,共8页Shanghai Highways

基　　金：山西交科院项目二期:车路协同试点应用风险评估与预警防控技术;the Shanxi Transportation Research Institute Group Co.,Ltd.(20-JKKJ-1)。

摘　　要：气象因素是影响高速公路行车安全的因素之一。以往研究较少采用实时气象数据,且大多只针对某类气象因素进行研究。现利用TJRD平台上的高速公路车辆轨迹数据和道路实时气象信息系统(Road Weather Information System, RWIS)数据,综合考虑了交通流因素和气象因素对交通冲突的影响,采用负二项分布模型,构建了高速公路交通冲突致因分析模型。分析表明,纵向风速和纵向速度标准差是影响高速公路行车安全的主要因素,能见度和路面湿滑系数为次要因素。研究结果可以为高速公路安全管控策略制定提供理论依据。Meteorological factor is one of the factors that affects highway driving safety.Previous studies rarely used real-time meteorological data,and most only focused on certain type of meteorological factors.This paper uses the vehicle trajectory data and the realtime road weather information system(RWIS)data on the TJRD platform to comprehensively consider the impact of traffic flow factors and meteorological factors on traffic conflicts.Negative binomial distribution was used to construct an analysis model for the causes of highway traffic conflicts.It shows that the longitudinal wind speed and the standard deviation of the longitudinal speed are the main factors affecting the highway driving safety,and the visibility and the road surface wet slip coefficient are the secondary factors.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of expressway safety management and control strategies.

关 键 词：负二项分布 气象数据 RWIS 轨迹数据 交通冲突 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]