ILS进近过程中多障碍物碰撞风险评估方法研究  

Multi-obstacle collision risk assessment method research during ILS approach

作　　者：张洪[1] 王强 ZHANG Hong;WANG Qiang(College of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Polaris Aviation Technology Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]天津航大天元航空技术有限公司,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第6期3028-3033,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122019176)。

摘　　要：为优化碰撞风险模型(Collision Risk Model,CRM)遮蔽角,从而准确计算基于仪表着陆系统(Instrument Landing System,ILS)进近过程中航空器与多障碍物的总碰撞风险,避免过度评估问题,首先,基于广播式自动相关监视(Automutic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast,ADS-B)数据计算得到航空器位置偏差,并研究其水平分布特征;然后,建立障碍物分布模型,从而计算得到航空器与障碍物碰撞风险;最后,基于条件概率,得到沿跑道中线和垂直跑道中线(或其延长线)不同位置处的遮蔽角。结果表明:航空器水平分布不为正态分布,可通过拟合数据得到概率密度函数及累计分布函数,从而计算碰撞风险;沿飞行方向,遮蔽角逐渐增大,但变化范围不大;沿垂直跑道中线(或其延长线)方向,由近及远遮蔽角先减小后增大,距离较远时,遮蔽角甚至可超过14°。This paper proposes a new method to estimate the shadow angle at different positions around the runway centerline.Some airports have complicated clearance conditions,so there are multiple obstacles located close to each other.The existence of the shadow angle can be used to avoid over-estimation of the collision risk in this situation during the Instrument Landing System(ILS)approach.This paper firstly studies the horizontal distribution of aircraft through ADS-B(Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast)data,the statistical results show that the aircraft are mostly concentrated within 20 m on both sides of the runway centerline during the approach,with an average value of 2.0837 and a standard deviation of 7.5066.It is not a normal distribution depending on the normal distribution hypothesis test(95%confidence level)and the normal distribution probability paper.In response to this situation,this paper calculates the risk of collision between the aircraft and the obstacles by obtaining the probability density function and cumulative distribution function and then calculates the total collision risk.Based on the risk value and the obstacle model established in this paper,the shadow angle can be calculated.The result shows that the shadow angle gradually increases and then decreases in a small range along the flight direction when the distance from the runway centerline(or its extension)is short and fixed;and when the distance to the runway centerline(or its extension)is short,the shadow angle does not exceed 2°;however,when the distance is large,the shadow angle will decrease all the time;along the direction perpendicular to the runway centerline,the shadow angle decreases first and then increases from near to far;when the distances from the runway threshold and the runway centerline(or its extension)are far,the shadow angle becomes too large,and the value can even exceed the current setting which is 14°.

关 键 词：安全工程 仪表着陆系统进近 碰撞风险模型 遮蔽角 航空器分布 障碍物评价面(OAS) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]