基于集成学习的驾驶人避险安全效果影响因素研究  

Study on factors influencing the avoidance effect of drivers based on integrated learning

作　　者：朱彤[1] 王驰恒 李青[1] 景云超 朱秭硕 李海梅 ZHU Tong;WANG Chi-heng;LI Qing;JING Yun-chao;ZHU Zi-shuo;LI Hai-mei(College of Transportation,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China;Key Laboratory of Automotive Transportation Safety Enhancement Technology,Ministry of Transport,Xi'an 710064,China;School of Automobile,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064 [2]汽车运输安全保障技术交通行业重点实验室,西安710064 [3]长安大学汽车学院,西安710064

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第6期3243-3251,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0108000)。

摘　　要：为准确分析影响避险安全效果的关键因素及其非线性影响关系,设计并实施了驾驶模拟试验。首先,利用模拟器及眼动仪采集各场景下驾驶人行为、眼动特征数据;其次,在相关性分析的基础上,采用随机森林等多种集成机器学习算法分析影响避险安全效果的因素,并对其重要度进行排序,采用GridSearch算法优化参数;最后,利用部分依赖图(Partial Dependence Plot,PDP)可解释性方法分析影响因素与避险安全效果之间的非线性关系。结果表明:影响特征与避险安全效果之间非线性关系明显;当特征数为6,特征分别为制动反应位置、制动反应时间、车速、刹车深度、纵向加速度、首次注视时间时的LightGBM模型效果最好,此时F1为86.07%。如制动距离较近,则高危险状况可能性明显增加;反应时间影响并不明显,但如反应过慢(超过0.9 s)则会造成风险概率升高;车速明显低于正常速度时避险安全效果不佳,往往是因为驾驶技能不强或处于分心状态;较低的减速度往往造成高危险状况,高减速度对于避免高危险状况有一定作用;制动深度不足往往伴随着高危险状况;首次注视时间过早或过晚都容易造成高危险状况,过早的注视往往是无意的注意,过晚的注意则表明发现时间过晚。To analyze the key factors which affect accident avoiding performance and its non-linear relationship accurately,this paper designed and implemented a driving simulation test.At first,the simulator and eye tracker recorder collected data about drivers’behavior and eye movement in each scene.Secondly,based on the correlation analysis,the factors were ranked by random forest and other integrated machine learning algorithms.GridSearch algorithm was used to optimize algorithm parameters.Finally,the PDP interpretability method was used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between the influencing factors and the hedging effect.The results show that there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between the impact characteristics and the risk aversion effect.When the number of features is 6(braking reaction position,braking reaction time,vehicle speed,braking depth,longitudinal acceleration,and first gaze time),the LightGBM model has the best effect,and the F1value is 86.07%.The result indicates that if the braking distance is short,the possibility of the highly dangerous condition increases significantly and continuously.The effect of drivers’reaction time is not obvious,but if the reaction time is too slow(more than 0.9 seconds),the risk probability increases.Furthermore,when the speed is obviously lower than normal speed,the avoidance effect is not good.That is because the drivers do not have proficient skills or be distracted.Lower deceleration often leads to a higher danger condition,and a sufficient degree of deceleration plays a certain role in avoiding high danger conditions.Insufficient braking depth is often accompanied by high danger conditions.In addition,early or late fixation is likely to cause high-risk conditions.The early fixation is usually unintentional attention,while the late fixation indicates that the discovery time is too late.

关 键 词：安全人体学 避险行为 危险 集成学习 部分依赖图(PDP) 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913